How resilience can secure Europe’s future against Russia Learning from the Baltic

In a timely and incisive piece for The Financial Times, the author explores the enduring struggle between Russia and the Baltic states, emphasizing how the region's history shapes its present and future security challenges. Drawing on both historical context and contemporary military strategy, the piece argues that the West's commitment to defending the Baltic states is far from certain, especially given the rise of Russian hybrid warfare and geopolitical tensions.

The author highlights the precarious position of the Baltic states, recalling the traumatic events of 1940 when Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia were annexed by the Soviet Union with little resistance from the West. Despite being NATO and EU members today, these countries continue to face an existential threat from Russia, which remains determined to challenge their sovereignty. The historical negligence of Western powers in supporting these small nations—whether in the early 20th century or during the independence movement of the late 1980s—continues to echo in their security strategies today.

The author emphasizes the stark contrast between the Baltic states' self-reliance and the fragility of European defense capabilities. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have developed robust defense systems, including Finland’s well-established military reserves and Lithuania's advocacy for liberal democratic values. However, as the author points out, NATO’s readiness to defend these countries is questionable. The alliance's weaknesses—exemplified by Germany’s underfunded military—pose a significant risk, especially when Russia could potentially close the Suwalki Gap, a critical corridor between Poland and Lithuania, within hours in a military escalation.

The author argues that Europe can learn from the Baltic states' resilience and strategic foresight. While the region has developed a formidable defensive posture, Western Europe remains woefully unprepared for a conflict with Russia, struggling with outdated military infrastructure and sluggish defense spending. The author stresses that “the best way to prevent a war is to be unmistakably capable of winning one,” a lesson the West must heed if it hopes to maintain stability in the face of growing Russian aggression.

In conclusion, the author's analysis underscores the critical importance of both strategic foresight and tangible military preparedness in defending Europe’s eastern flank. The call for Europe to bolster its defenses and learn from the Baltic states’ resilience is not just timely—it is a necessary blueprint for the future of European security.

By Vugar Khalilov