Iran Wire: Iran's diplomatic isolation deepens

A year has passed since the quelling of protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini.

Throughout this period, the Islamic Republic has made concerted efforts to extricate itself from the international isolation brought about by the protests and their violent suppression, Iran Wire reported on March 27.

For the second consecutive year, alongside Russia, the Islamic Republic has not received an invitation to the Munich Security Conference. 

Last year, this exclusion followed the brutal crackdown on protesters in Iran. 

Despite the passage of a year since those events, Iranian officials were again conspicuously absent from this prestigious gathering, leaving vacant seats for both Iran and Russia.

The Munich Security Conference stands as one of the foremost annual assemblies where global leaders convene to uphold peace.

Over the past year, the Islamic Republic has found itself facing heightened international scrutiny from Western governments. 

Incidents such as attempts to abduct and assassinate dissidents abroad, coupled with escalations in regional tensions through proxy forces, have become distressingly commonplace.

In early 2023, amid the Iranian government's apparent success in quashing the most significant protests since the 1979 Revolution through brutal suppression and the execution of several detained protesters, reports surfaced of clandestine negotiations aimed at restoring ties with Saudi Arabia. 

These negotiations bore fruit, with Saudi Arabia managing to mend relations.

While Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran reopened their embassies, the situation remains strained. 

The Saudi embassy in Tehran, set on fire by Basij students in 2016, is currently unusable, and the Saudi diplomats are housed in a hotel. 

Differences dating back to December 2015 have not been resolved and have, if anything, deepened. 

Attacks by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea have escalated tensions. 

Saudi Arabia had been a prominent critic and adversary of the Islamic Republic throughout the past decade, severing ties with Tehran and prompting similar actions from other Arab and Islamic nations like Bahrain.

The restoration of relations with Saudi Arabia was anticipated to pave the way for re-establishing ties with other nations that had aligned with Saudi interests by cutting off relations with Iran. 

Bahrain topped this list, but a year following the reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh, Bahrain has shown no inclination to follow suit.

While Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, expressed optimism about the imminent resumption of ties with Bahrain, three months later, he acknowledged in June 2023 that certain conditions needed to be met for progress to occur, including broader regional developments involving Bahrain.

A year later, not only have these conditions not materialized for the Iranian government, but Saudi Arabia, despite forging relations with Tehran through China, still harbors reservations about normalizing its relations with the Islamic Republic.

In addition to lingering tensions stemming from the legacy of Qassem Soleimani, the killed commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, controversies surrounding his portrait at joint press conferences and even his statue at a football match between Iranian and Saudi clubs have exacerbated the situation. 

Saudi officials have suspended Umrah pilgrimages and reneged on promises of investment in Iran.

The establishment of relations seemingly aimed to mitigate the damage inflicted by Iran's proxy forces, notably Yemen's Houthis, who targeted Saudi interests and even struck Aramco's oil facilities.

This rapprochement has alleviated threats posed by the Houthis to Saudi Arabia, providing a favorable outcome for the Saudis amid escalating threats from Iranian proxies in the region.

China, keen on safeguarding the stability of its investments in the region, has continually cautioned Iranian authorities against actions that could disrupt regional stability. 

When the Houthi rebels started attacks on ships associated with Israel in the Red Sea, China, alongside the United States and Britain, urged Iran to rein in the Houthis and prevent further escalation.

China's role in steering the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic, previously occupied by Oman, has persisted, albeit with the focus primarily on controlling Iran's external conduct rather than enhancing its international standing.

The diminishing role of Oman in Iran's foreign relations was underscored this year by a symbolic event. 

When Haitham bin Tariq, the Sultan of Oman, visited Tehran for the first time as Sultan Qaboos's successor, he made two notable proposals. 

One was to mediate the revival of the nuclear agreement, which had previously facilitated historic direct negotiations between Iran and the United States in the American capital. 

The other proposal was to mediate the reestablishment of relations with Egypt, which had been severed by Ruhollah Khomeini's decree due to Egypt's ties with Israel.

Although Ali Khamenei publicly announced that he no longer opposed relations with Egypt and welcomed Oman's mediation, Egypt has not reciprocated, and there has been no progress in restoring ties during the 45 years of severed relations between the two countries.

Relations with Europe have dwindled significantly. 

Neither ongoing political developments nor the current crisis of legitimacy faced by the Islamic Republic necessitate strong ties with Europe. 

Economic relations have plummeted, and the embassies of the Islamic Republic in key European capitals like London and Paris have been without ambassadors for months.

The Islamic Republic's military support to Russia in its conflict with Ukraine has cast Iran in the role of a military aggressor in the eyes of Europeans.

Tensions persist among neighboring countries. In the winter of 2023, the IRGC targeted Pakistan with missiles. 

Pakistan retaliated, resulting in clashes between two countries that had not previously had armed hostilities.

The situation with international organizations is the same. 

The removal of the Islamic Republic from the presidency of the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women last year highlighted Iran's standing in international institutions.