Is China planning preemptive strike against Japan?

Tensions are rising as China appears to be contemplating a surprise attack on Japan, potentially involving a substantial missile strike targeting US and Japanese military installations across the archipelago, according to an opinion piece by The Hill.

The rationale behind such an operation is clear: to establish air and naval supremacy necessary for a complex invasion of Taiwan. Given that Japan hosts significant allied naval capabilities, this move could significantly bolster China’s operational success. However, the question remains whether Xi Jinping would gamble on escalating tensions to the brink of global conflict.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) possesses the capability for a devastating first strike against Japan, equipped with advanced precision weaponry and extensive reconnaissance and targeting systems. Analysts suggest that if Beijing manages to achieve surprise, it could incapacitate most US military assets in Japan, disrupting crucial infrastructure and ports. According to PLA doctrine, a preemptive disabling attack is a key step towards facilitating a massive invasion of Taiwan, necessitating control over the region’s air and sea forces.

Yet, attacking Japan poses enormous strategic risks for Xi. Since World War II, the US and its allies have not faced such an assault. Even Vladimir Putin has refrained from directly targeting U.S. interests during his aggressive actions in Ukraine, prioritizing strategic stability over immediate military gains. While US and allied forces are vulnerable to such a strike, they are beginning to address China’s military buildup. However, US assets in the region are still considered soft targets.

The military allure of a preemptive strike is offset by high strategic stakes. If the US were to recover from an initial assault, a robust counterattack from allied forces would be expected, potentially leading to a full-scale war. This could prompt nations that might otherwise remain neutral to join the conflict against China, resulting in a significant shift in global public sentiment against it.

In the aftermath of such a conflict, the US would likely target Chinese military infrastructure directly and might even support internal unrest within China. Consequently, Xi faces a strategic conundrum: launching a preemptive strike might improve the chances of success in Taiwan, but it carries unacceptably high risks. A more prudent approach would be to escalate tensions without triggering an all-out war, which might involve limited strikes and a naval blockade aimed at undermining Taiwan’s resolve while keeping US forces at bay.

To mitigate the risks of a preemptive attack, the US and Japan should enhance their defences and prepare for potential hybrid warfare tactics aimed at undermining their resolve.