Israel warns of consequences from Irani-Russian military partnership

Israel is increasingly concerned that Iran will gain know-how and experience from its military cooperation with Russia in the latter’s war efforts against Ukraine, which could improve Tehran’s abilities to attack targets in the Middle East.

As the Israeli Haaretz reported, National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata warned at the International Institute for Strategic Studies conference in Bahrain from November 19-21 that Iran might also be supplying Moscow with short-range ballistic missiles as part of their growing cooperation.

The publication cites a government source saying that the Israeli ambassador to Moscow conveyed Israel’s concerns in a conversation with one of Russia’s deputy foreign ministers.

Another source noted, that "Until now, Iran had no significant operational experience in the field of munitions. The fighting in Ukraine, involving equipment Iran knows well, could now enable it to accumulate knowledge about using its drones more effectively and about its rocket and missile capabilities".

The growing bond between Iran and Russia has dramatically undermined the likelihood of a new nuclear deal being signed with Tehran. The current Israeli assessment is that the chances of the US and Europe seeking such a deal right now are close to zero, though the idea hasn’t been definitively taken off the table.

The hostility between Europe and Russia over the latter’s invasion of Ukraine and Moscow’s increasing closeness with Tehran significantly reduce the West’s ability to form a joint front with Russia against Iran on this issue. In particular, other participants in the talks are now worried about Russia’s ability to carry out the role the original nuclear deal assigned it, namely supervising the enriched uranium that was supposed to be removed from Iran under that deal.

Israel’s Military Intelligence chief Aharon Haliva predicted on November 27 that Iran would soon "toy with enriching" uranium to the 90% level needed to make a nuclear weapon. The next day, Tehran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it planned to expand its enrichment of uranium to the lower level of 60% by doing it at a second facility.

According to the publication, Tehran’s growing alliance with Moscow worries Israeli defense officials but it also facilitates Israel’s campaign to prevent a new nuclear deal.

Senior Israeli officials who spent the past year urging the Biden administration to intensify sanctions on Iran over the progress of its nuclear program recently discovered that Washington is now committed to doing so due to Tehran’s radicalization on other issues like its aid to Russia, the widespread protests in Iranian cities and reports on its human rights violations.

Although the tougher sanctions are definitely making themselves felt, Tehran hasn’t yet changed its practice of aggressive behavior.

Only recently an Iranian drone attacked a ship in the Gulf of Oman that was partly owned by an Israeli, the ayatollahs’ government announced its expanded uranium enrichment and human rights organizations reported on harsher actions against the country’s demonstrators.

In September, Defense Minister Benny Gantz shared Israeli intelligence with the UN Security Council showing that Iran’s nuclear program has advanced significantly over the last year. In a briefing to the ambassadors of the council’s member states, he urged the international community to prepare operational, diplomatic and economic plans to counter Tehran and to take steps against it in the Security Council. He also demanded that the IAEA complete its investigation into traces of uranium found at sites where Iran has no declared nuclear activity.

Gantz warned that Iran has tripled its enrichment capabilities at Fordo plant, where the original nuclear deal, from which Iran never withdrew, forbids any enrichment at all. He added that should it choose so, Iran could easily enrich to 90%.

Calling Iran the most destabilizing element in the Middle East, he warned that it could bring about increased terrorism and an arms race.

The minister further added that Iran is already having a negative impact on the global economy, global energy resources, food prices and freedom of navigation, predicting that all this will only worsen if it acquires a nuclear umbrella.