ISW: Provisions of tanks to Ukraine would offset Russia's mechanised warfare ability

Russia’s inability to regenerate expended mechanised vehicles in the short term further restricts Russian maneuver warfare capabilities.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported that Russia lost about 50 per cent of its T-72B and T-72B3M tanks and many T-80 tanks, forcing Russian forces to rely on older equipment, Caliber.Az informs citing the US think-tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts say that UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace estimated that Russia could have committed up to 97 per cent of its army to the fight in Ukraine and that its combat effectiveness has decreased by 40 per cent due to an “almost First World War level of attrition” that measures Russian advances in meters in human wave attacks.

"The timely Western provisions of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine would further offset Russia’s ability to conduct mechanised warfare as Russia struggles to restart its defence production in the immediate term," the analysts believe.

Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate large-scale counteroffensives over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it the necessary materiel, particularly tanks and armored vehicles.

Key Takeaways

• Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine.
• Russia’s inability to reconstruct spent mechanised material in the short term further restricts the Russian military’s mechanized maneuver warfare capabilities.
•  Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources implied that Ukrainian forces may hold positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, although ISW has not observed any confirmation of the claim.
• The Kremlin continues to fund its war efforts in Ukraine from regional budgets.