ISW: Türkiye, SNA gearing up for major offensive against US-backed troops in Syria MAP / VIDEO

Türkiye and the Syrian National Army (SNA) are preparing for a potential offensive into a territory in Syria controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (considered a terrorist organization by Türkiye, with links to the PKK/YPG).

On January 7, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Türkiye would conduct a military operation against the PKK/YPG in Syria if the YPG forces do not disband and join the new Syrian Ministry of Defense. Fidan's comment is one of the most explicit statements by a high-ranking Turkish official threatening military action against the SDF (PKK/YPG), Caliber.Az informs, referencing a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW report mentions that the SDF is currently negotiating the terms of its potential integration into the future Syrian armed forces with the new government in Damascus, but it remains unclear whether Türkiye will wait for these negotiations to conclude before initiating the operation.

The report indicates that the SNA forces have been deployed and mobilized along the front lines, suggesting that the SNA is preparing for a potential assault against PKK/YPG formations from the SNA-controlled “Peace Spring” area (an enclave between Ain Issa and Tal Tamr, north of the M4 highway).

SNA commander Abu Abdullah Mohammed of the Ras al-Ayn Unified Forces, which includes the Hamza Division and Suleiman Shah Brigade, stated that the SNA has sent fighters, tanks, and other heavy weapons to the front lines near the cities of Ain al-Arabi (Kobani) in Aleppo province, Ain Issa in Raqqa province, and Tal Tamr in Hasakah province. The ISW cannot confirm local reports of SNA deployments nor comment on their size and scale.

Reports of SNA mobilization align with recent Turkish airstrikes and artillery shelling of PKK/YPG positions and military targets along the front line in the “Peace Spring” area. A Kurdish journalist separately reported that the SNA had sent "significant" reinforcements to Jarablus, located north of the Kara Kozak Bridge on the western bank of the Euphrates River.

The ISW believes that the reported SNA deployments and current axes of advancement toward PKK/YPG-controlled areas on the western bank of the Euphrates suggest the contours of a potential future SNA offensive. The deployments on the front lines near Ain al-Arabi (Kobani), Ain Issa, and Tal Tamr imply that the SNA may initiate a three-pronged assault to break through SDF defenses along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River.

Analysts do not rule out that one of the objectives of this offensive could be the capture of Ain al-Arabi (Kobani) or the blockade of PKK/YPG forces around Kobani, while a second front advances west and south from the Ain Issa area toward the Tishrin Dam and the Kara Kozak Bridge positions. Some intermediate objectives may include cutting off the M4 highway to block any PKK/YPG reinforcements from the east to the Kara Kozak Bridge.

The ISW also does not exclude the possibility that the reinforcements reportedly sent by the SNA to the Tal Tamr front lines suggest that the SNA might advance east toward al-Hasakah and attempt to isolate the northernmost PKK/YPG-controlled area. Reinforcements reportedly sent to Jarablus may advance south toward SDF strongholds on the western bank of the Euphrates River. However, the timing of a possible SNA operation in the “Peace Spring” area remains unclear.

It remains uncertain whether Türkiye will launch a military operation in northern Syria simultaneously with a potential SNA offensive. It is unlikely that the reported SNA deployments are happening without Turkish approval and support.

🚨Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri, Tişrin Barajı yakınlarında bulunan PKK/YPG terör örgütü hedeflerini vuruyor. pic.twitter.com/q1efHn1pcC

— Conflict (@ConflictTR) January 8, 2025

Turkish Armed Forces strike PKK/YPG targets near Tishrin Dam

The ISW suggests that Türkiye is currently conducting airstrikes to block supply lines to PKK/YPG formations, but these efforts may also be a precursor to a broader SNA operation supported and approved by Türkiye.

#SONDAKİKA

🚨 MİT'e ait Bayraktar TB-2 SİHA Tişrin cephe hattında uçuyor. pic.twitter.com/qiZ6XGqlgM

— Conflict (@ConflictTR) January 8, 2025

Bayraktar TB-2 monitors the front line in Tishrin

Turkish drones are striking deep into PKK/YPG-controlled territory, which could be part of Türkiye's efforts to set the stage for a Turkish military operation.

The ISW is convinced that Türkiye’s air campaign to disrupt SDF supply lines to the Tishrin Dam could weaken the ability of PKK/YPG forces to defend against SNA attacks on the western bank.

#SONDAKİKA

🚨 Türk savaş uçakları Suriye semalarında uçuyor. pic.twitter.com/UQqhuLJDj8

— Conflict (@ConflictTR) January 8, 2025

Turkish fighter jets in the skies of Syria

Key takeaways: Türkiye and its ally, the Syrian National Army (SNA), are preparing for a potential offensive against U.S.-controlled territory held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (PKK/YPG) in Syria. SNA Commander reports that forces have been deployed along the control lines between the SNA and the SDF in northern Syria. The reported deployments and current axes of SNA advancement toward PKK/YPG-controlled areas on the western bank of the Euphrates River suggest that the SNA may launch a three-pronged offensive aimed at breaking through SDF defenses along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River.

By Khagan Isayev