Japan weighs allowing Patriot missile transfers to aid Ukraine

Japan will consider allowing the US to supply Japanese-made Patriot missiles to Europe and elsewhere, in a move that could indirectly help Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The Japanese government will update guidelines on defence exports as early as Friday, allowing shipments of missiles and other equipment made under license to countries where those patent holders are based. Currently, only components of licensed equipment can be sent to the US, Nikkei Asia reports.

Japan will also allow recipient countries to transfer equipment to a third country with prior approval, except to those actively involved in an armed conflict, such as Ukraine and Israel.

While this would not allow Washington to directly send Kyiv Japanese-built Patriot missiles, it would give the US more room to keep supplying Ukraine with American-made weapons.

As a first step, Japan's National Security Council is seen approving shipments of Patriot missiles to the US as early as this year. Washington has requested the shipments as its stockpiles run low.

Patriot missiles are currently being used by Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in an October report.

The US could keep these countries supplied, "but with some difficult tradeoffs later," Cancian said.

With US inventories restocked with Japanese-made Patriot missiles, Washington could continue equipping Ukraine and other countries. This allows Japan to indirectly aid Ukraine.

In response to NATO requests, Japan will then consider approving the transfer of Japanese-made Patriot missiles by the US to a third country. It will make a final decision next year and draw up a timeline based on the specific needs of the US and other parties.

Missiles could be sent to countries like Poland, which borders Ukraine and, like many other European countries, has been expanding its arsenal in response to the Ukraine war.

Japan aims to increase security contributions and bolster cooperation with the US and NATO in light of growing security challenges in East Asia.

China has been rapidly expanding its military capabilities while North Korea advances its nuclear and missile technologies. China and Russia are conducting joint military activity in waters and skies near Japan.

East Asia has no regional security alliance comparable to NATO. Should a crisis break out in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere in the region, Japan would need to secure cooperation individually from the US and other partners. A stronger partnership with NATO members will be key to ensuring support during a crisis.

Patriot missiles were developed by US defence contractors Lockheed Martin and RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries produces them under license in Japan.

The ground-to-air Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) missiles have a range of over 100 kilometres. PAC-3s, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles, have a shorter range but can operate at higher altitudes and with better accuracy.

Japan is expected to export the missiles for around 500 million yen ($3.49 million) each. Japan sees greater shipments of licensed products lifting profits for Japanese companies as well.

Japan has previously exported nonlethal radar warning systems to the Philippines. The Patriot missiles would be the first export of finished lethal equipment, marking a turning point in defence export policy.

A working group under the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito issued recommendations this month regarding defence exports. It called for having the National Security Council deliberate on proposed transfers of Japanese-made equipment to a third country, like it would for direct exports. It also urged the council to coordinate with the ruling coalition beforehand.

Many in Komeito want clear explanations from the government regarding transfers of lethal equipment. Communication from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other officials will be key.

Patriot missiles are important to Japan's defence as well, such as for intercepting potential ballistic missile launches by North Korea. Because Japan has only a small surplus of these missiles, it will need to take steps to ensure exports do not affect deterrence.