Japanese PM’s future uncertain as nation heads for elections

As Japan heads into a crucial upper house election on July 20, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s political future hangs in the balance. The ruling coalition, composed of the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito, is at risk of losing its majority—a potential turning point that could lead to major political realignments or even Ishiba’s resignation.

Polls suggest that rising support for right-wing populist parties, especially among younger voters, could cost the coalition key seats. These challengers have capitalised on growing dissatisfaction with the LDP, which has governed Japan for most of the post-war era. If the coalition fails to secure at least 50 seats in this election, it would lose its majority in the upper house when combined with the seats not up for contest.

As summarised by a New York Times article covering the elections, the island is grappling with four significant challenges: tense trade negotiations with the United States, a more assertive China, a rapidly ageing population, and the sharpest inflation surge in three decades. Of these, inflation has emerged as the top concern among voters, with wages stagnating and the cost of living—especially the price of rice—soaring. Rice prices have doubled due to poor harvests and unpopular government policies, igniting public anger.

Another major source of discontent is the deteriorating relationship with the U.S., traditionally one of Japan’s closest allies. Many Japanese feel alienated by the Trump administration’s threats to impose a 25% tariff on all Japanese exports unless Tokyo opens its rice market further and buys more American cars. These demands have amplified nationalist sentiments and undermined confidence in U.S. reliability.

Prime Minister Ishiba is scheduled to hold a press conference on July 21 to address the election results. Depending on the outcome, Nikkei Asia predicts that the following three scenarios could unfold:

Coalition maintains majority

If the LDP and Komeito secure at least 50 seats, they retain control of the upper house. This is the most favourable outcome for Ishiba, allowing him to remain in office without needing to expand the coalition. With 66 seats currently up for re-election, the coalition can afford to lose up to 16 and still retain a majority. Ishiba has been actively campaigning in key prefectures and reaching out to party support groups to boost turnout.

Narrow loss, but Ishiba remains

Even if the coalition falls short of 50 seats, Ishiba might stay in power. Unlike lower house elections, losing the upper house doesn’t automatically trigger a leadership contest. The LDP could attempt to form a majority by bringing in independent or unaffiliated lawmakers who share similar views. Ishiba may also argue that continuity in leadership is vital as Japan faces looming trade tensions, particularly with Trump’s tariffs set to take effect on August 1.

Major defeat triggers resignation

Should the coalition suffer a significant loss and lose its majority in both houses, Ishiba may be forced to step down. This would trigger an LDP presidential election, possibly within a month. The new party leader would then face a vote in the Diet to become prime minister. If opposition parties cannot unite behind a single candidate, the LDP’s new president would likely take the role. Several figures from Ishiba’s cabinet—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi—are potential contenders.

Regardless of the results, the LDP remains a minority in the lower house. It may seek to broaden its coalition beyond Komeito, possibly partnering with moderate opposition parties to ensure legislative stability. Depending on those negotiations, a non-LDP prime minister could emerge—a rare but plausible outcome in Japan’s fractured political landscape.

By Nazrin Sadigova