Kazakhstan warns Iran trade to slow amid Gulf conflict

Kazakhstan expects trade with Iran to slow in 2026 due to escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and ongoing sanctions-related obstacles, Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said on May 13.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Mazhilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament, Zhumangarin said bilateral trade had been projected at around $450 million for 2025, but warned that regional instability would likely affect economic activity next year, Caliber.Az reports via Kazakh media. 

“By the end of 2026, there will of course be a slowdown due to the conflict currently unfolding in the Persian Gulf,” the minister said.

Despite the anticipated decline, Kazakhstan still aims to significantly expand trade ties with Iran over the longer term, although Zhumangarin acknowledged current conditions make that objective difficult to achieve.

According to the minister, supply agreements between businesses have already been signed, but financial transactions remain a major challenge because payments are often routed through third countries to avoid sanctions-related restrictions.

“Traders have frozen,” Zhumangarin said, pointing to uncertainty over payment mechanisms and concerns surrounding sanctioned goods.

He added that non-food products face particular scrutiny under international sanctions regimes. Kazakhstan has requested permission to continue supplying such goods to Iran, but authorities have yet to receive approval.

By Sabina Mammadli