"Lukashenko is lenient toward Pashinyan's clowning" Belarusian experts weigh in on Armenia’s provocations

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan once again tried to provoke official Minsk. At least, such conclusions can be drawn from statements made by the Armenian Prime Minister in the National Assembly. In response to a question about whether it was true that Yerevan had requested the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit to be held not in Armenia, but in St. Petersburg, Prime Minister Pashinyan indicated the existence of a so-called "black list." "I can explain why. Unfortunately, due to certain well-known circumstances, not all members of the Supreme Economic Council of the EAEU are desirable for Armenia," Pashinyan emphasized.

The Prime Minister did not clarify who exactly was considered an undesirable guest in Yerevan, but Armenian media immediately linked his statement to Pashinyan's previous remarks about Belarus and President Lukashenko. Last summer, Pashinyan warned that neither he nor any government officials would visit Belarus as long as Alexander Lukashenko remained in power. It seems the Prime Minister decided that the Belarusian leader should not visit Armenia either.

It is quite reasonable to ask why Pashinyan continues to consciously worsen relations with official Minsk and complicate relations with the EAEU. A Caliber.Az correspondent tried to find an answer to this question from Belarusian political analysts.

According to military expert, reserve colonel, and professor at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Tikhansky, Pashinyan is not in a position to engage in any political games at the moment. His statements regarding the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the EAEU clearly show noticeable contradictions.

"He clearly demonstrates what he needs and what he doesn't. Washington and Paris are pressuring him to leave the CSTO, promising their support, including military-technical assistance. However, there's nothing to replace the EAEU with. So, is Vladimir Vovaevich going to avoid Lukashenko in circles? Pashinyan's actions resemble behaviour in a kindergarten: 'I've been offended,' and everything revolves around that grievance. Such behaviour is unbecoming of a national leader or head of government, and he has already lost much of his international authority. In the end, his behaviour reflects his personal character: an ambitious and vengeful person," noted Tikhansky.

According to Alexey Chernov, the chief expert at the Center for Analytical Forecasting, Belarus takes a rather lenient view of statements from Yerevan.

"I believe Minsk has repeatedly shown that it treats Pashinyan's statements, which target Belarus or its president, as mere theatrical performances. Everyone understands that Pashinyan is on a leash held by the West, or as they say, 'under manual control,' and from time to time, he must make such remarks to justify the trust of his new partners. Armenia's refusal to host the EAEU summit in Yerevan and Pashinyan's ambiguous comments are clearly part of this political routine, and they are not unfriendly to Minsk itself, but to the EAEU format and all neighbouring countries. By making this statement without singling anyone out specifically, Pashinyan has offended all EAEU and CIS partners. However, it is quite obvious that many have begun to link his words to his previous negative comments about Belarus, searching for some hidden motive behind them.

By the way, I want to emphasize once again that Belarus and President Lukashenko view such actions with great leniency, as Lukashenko himself has said, 'with understanding.' The Belarusian president has repeatedly stressed this in his interviews. This is the essence of Pashinyan's performance—it’s more of a show than a concrete action. Armenia won’t be taken to court over this, but such a statement could certainly tarnish its relations with EAEU partners. However, Pashinyan understands that no one will sever economic ties with Yerevan; everything will remain within the framework of diplomatic etiquette and the format of established bilateral relations with each country, as well as the common regulations of the EAEU. That’s why Pashinyan engages in this political 'clowning,' where he can get away with a little mischief and hooliganism.

But I think there will come a moment when such ambiguous pirouettes by Pashinyan will backfire on Armenia—I believe he is underestimating the long-term consequences of his actions. It’s clear that Pashinyan is playing what is now a popular 'politics of the day,' where everything said today, and even done, can be undone tomorrow with few repercussions. This is generally his strategy—but such tactics won’t always work," noted Chernov.