Lula’s out to get Brazil’s global mojo back Analysis by Foreign Policy

Foreign Policy has published an article saying that as Biden, Brazil’s old-new president inherited a mess on the international stage. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula, stepped into his third term ready to rebuild Brazil’s international image, which had been largely diminished by his predecessor. And Lula has a guidebook to follow, not only from his two prior terms, but also from US President Joe Biden’s ascension. From the Jan. 8 riots in Brasília to both countries reentering international organizations, Biden and Lula have fought—and will continue to fight—eerily similar battles. 

“Both Lula and Biden are presidents that are positioning themselves as leaders in the democratic world, defending democracy in the region, and with clear priorities on the agenda,” said Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Institute at the Wilson Center.

During his first two terms as president, between 2003 and 2010, Lula set Brazil up as a major economic and political player on the world stage. Lula was a founding member of BRICS—a geopolitical bloc including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—and attended its first formal summit in 2009, and Brazil was one of the leading voices calling for UN Security Council expansion during the Lula administration. Brazil’s relationships with its neighbors had never been better, with a wave of Lula allies elected into office throughout the region, including Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Hugo Chávez in Venezuela.

But things may not be so straightforward this time around. Despite the recent wave of leftist governments echoing the political tides of the early 2000s, instability has rocked Latin America in recent years, with worsening situations in Nicaragua and Venezuela, violent protests in Peru, and the devastating economic and social impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. The new “pink tide” will be far more turbulent than the first.

“It’s very early on to see how successful he’s going to be, but it’s not going to be the easy ride he had on the first pink tide, when everyone was on better terms,” said Cecilia Tornaghi, the senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. 

Deep political polarization was laid bare in two of the Western Hemisphere’s largest democracies during the violent Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in Washington and the Jan. 8, 2023, riots in Brasília. For both Biden and Lula, who each began their time in office amid the wreckage of stormed government buildings, this became an opportunity for further cooperation on strengthening democratic institutions. The United States will be hosting the second Summit for Democracy this month, which is focused on developing an agenda for democratic renewal, which Lula welcomed in his meeting with Biden in February.

“It’s a very positive initiative on the part of both to recognize the similarities and the threats to democracy, and their willingness to cooperate,” said James Green, a professor of Latin American history and Brazilian studies at Brown University. “It’s still to be determined how that will actually play out in practice.” 

But Lula’s image is also not the same as it once was. Lula was handed a 12-year jail sentence for a massive corruption scandal that took place during his first two terms in office. Although the sentence was short-lived and Lula maintains his innocence, the baggage of jail time has become a major point of concern for leaders who may not want to be associated with Lula’s past scandals.

“All the people that see him as a criminal or a former criminal will continue to,” Tornaghi said. “There’s nothing he can say that will change their views, so he doesn’t even try.”

Former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro turned their respective countries into pariahs on the international stage, causing tension with neighbors and turning their backs on multilateral organizations that did not flatter their nationalistic approaches to governing. If Bolsonaro and Trump were often compared while in office, what they left behind is also similar.

Both Bolsonaro and Trump threatened to withdraw from the World Health Organization at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, touting anti-COVID conspiracy theories and discouraging mask use. US and Brazilian standing on the world stage suffered under the two leaders, with Trump and Bolsonaro ignoring—and sometimes railing against—climate issues. Bolsonaro’s threats to withdraw from the Paris climate accord followed Trump’s official withdrawal from the agreement in 2020, citing his “America First” policy.

One of Biden’s first acts as president was to re-enter the Paris Agreement, signaling US commitment to environmental policies and a return to international engagement. Climate change, too, has been at the heart of Lula’s international strategy. Lula visited Washington in his first trip outside of Latin America in early February, following which Lula signaled that the United States is expected to join the Brazilian Development Bank-led Amazon Fund, which raises and directs investments to prevent and combat deforestation in the Amazon. 

“I think President Lula is prioritizing the right thing that can be the hook for the international community to work with Lula and to bring back Brazil as a leader in global affairs,” said Valentina Sader, Brazil lead at the Atlantic Council. “And that angle is climate.”

Brazil is home to 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest. The Amazon is a crucial carbon sink, which helps regulate both local and global climate. Under Bolsonaro, deforestation reached a record high, sparking concerns that the forest would never recover from the accelerating large-scale deforestation.

Within the region, Bolsonaro’s withdrawal from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), despite Brazil’s historic leadership in the organization, over criticism of leftist authoritarian countries within the organization, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, further isolated Brazil.

Lula has already taken a different approach, showing his willingness to engage with its traditional allies, strengthen cooperation in the region, and keep the door open to bring leaders such as Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to the table.

“Lula is being Lula,” Tornaghi said. “What was the first thing he did? He went to CELAC in Argentina. He was celebrated like a rockstar in Argentina—concerts and everything, in his honor. Then he went to Uruguay, a center-right country, and had a great conversation with President Lacalle Pou.”

Santos also believes, given his strong democratic and diplomatic record, that “Lula might be an important moderator in the region when it comes to coordinating and moderating conversations with Venezuela and Nicaragua.” 

“Brazil has a clear path in foreign policy that went a little bit off track with Bolsonaro,” Santos said. “But there is a path of valuing multilateral organizations, regional dialogue, and finding diplomatic solutions for peace. Those are important values for Brazil’s foreign policy.”

That was reflected in Lula’s statements on the Russia-Ukraine war. He expressed his desire for a peaceful end to the conflict and has left the door open to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin—much to the chagrin of Western leaders who are trying to ratchet up military support for Ukraine from the so-called global south.

“Brazil and Brazilian diplomacy tends to not take a side unless they absolutely have to,” Sader said. “The approach that the Lula administration is taking—and Bolsonaro had this kind of approach as well—is that we defend and want peace, but that needs to be done through diplomatic means.”

Trade is another area where Lula can mark a contrast to Bolsonaro. Brazil is one of the biggest forces inside the Mercosur trading bloc, which also includes Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Since 2019, the bloc’s Association Agreement with the European Union has been pending, and ratification is one of Lula’s foreign-policy priorities. After a 20-plus-year process, ratification must take place in both Europe and Mercosur member states to finally come into force. Despite holdouts like France, Lula’s Amazon-friendly stance may make ratification easier. Ratification has also taken on new urgency after Lula floated the idea of an agreement with South America’s largest trading partner, China, an attempt to soothe the rift among Mercosur leaders after Uruguay toyed with a bilateral deal with Beijing.

“Mercosur and the EU treaty are definitely the low-hanging fruit that he can show his chops on,” Tornaghi said.

But in order to achieve his objectives within Latin America, Lula will have to reckon not only with his own baggage and the debris left by the Bolsonaro administration, but with Brazil’s complicated role in Latin America as well. Many of its neighbors are wary of being engulfed by Brazil due to its massive territory, economy, and geopolitical influence. Linguistic differences have also long set Portuguese-speaking Brazil apart from the rest of the region. 

“Brazil needs to reconcile its soft power in the region,” Santos said. “Because of the language and recent history of our foreign policy in the region, we have to get that back on track and establish clearly that we are prioritizing the relationship of democratic nations that are committed to sustainable development in the Americas.”