Media: Hezbollah activity declines after loss of key supply route

A reported decline in the “military activity” of Hezbollah is being observed amid ongoing escalation with the Israel Defence Forces in southern Lebanon, according to a military source cited by Al Hadath.

The source attributed the slowdown to several factors, including restrictions imposed by the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have established checkpoints and intensified patrols. These measures have complicated the movement of Hezbollah fighters and hindered the transfer of weapons and ammunition across different regions of the country.

A key factor behind the decline is the reported loss of the Tehran–Damascus–Beirut corridor, described as a critical supply route for ammunition. As a result, Hezbollah is facing increasing difficulty replenishing its stockpiles, which the source said are now nearly depleted.

In response, the group has shifted to conserving ammunition when deploying drones and launching rockets, possibly calculating its actions based on the expected duration of the ceasefire and the risk of renewed hostilities.

The report also points to a revival of tactics associated with the 1980s, including the use of small, highly mobile “suicide groups” aimed at destabilising Israeli forces in contested areas.

Hezbollah’s rocket capabilities have also been degraded by recent Israeli strikes targeting launch infrastructure. While the group is estimated to retain between 20,000 and 25,000 rockets and shells, most are short- and medium-range systems that currently lack viable launch platforms.

According to the source, more than 90% of Hezbollah facilities south of the Litani River have been destroyed, with the Lebanese army now controlling the remaining positions. Strikes in the Bekaa Valley have further restricted the group’s ability to maneuver or launch rockets without detection.

The group is also dealing with internal structural challenges, including a prolonged leadership crisis and weakened mid-level command. Losses among senior figures in Israeli operations have reportedly triggered internal tensions. Fighters are described as exhausted after the 2024 conflict and more than 15 months of continued Israeli military activity, reducing both combat effectiveness and mobilization capacity.

Supply routes through Syria have been disrupted, borders are under tight control, and support from Iran has diminished following recent strikes.

Despite these constraints, Hezbollah continues to operate, having shifted from reliance on long-range precision missile systems to “hit-and-hide” tactics using drones and short-range rockets, reflecting its reduced capabilities.

Benjamin Netanyahu said Hezbollah’s remaining drones and missiles justify continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon despite the ceasefire. He stated that the group retains around 10% of the missile arsenal it had at the start of the war, but that it still poses a threat to northern Israel. Israel maintains that it has the right to continue operations in Lebanon under agreements with the United States and the Lebanese government.

The ceasefire took effect on April 17 following talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington. Initially set for 10 days, it was extended on April 23 by Donald Trump for an additional three weeks after a second round of negotiations at the White House. Under the terms published by the US State Department, Israel retains the right to take “all necessary measures to defend itself” in the event of planned or imminent attacks.

By Tamilla Hasanova