Moscow testing NATO's defenses in Baltics, Latvian spy agency warns

Russia has intensified its surveillance and provocative actions targeting NATO military activities in the Baltic Sea, according to a report published on May 6 by Delfi, citing Latvia’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD).

The intelligence report states that the Russian Federation is increasingly resorting to displays of force and deliberate provocations, including unauthorised intrusions into NATO airspace and aggressive manoeuvres near NATO aircraft and naval vessels.

Latvian intelligence warns that such behaviour raises the risk of unintended military incidents.

“These provocations are likely aimed at intimidation and at testing the responses of potential adversaries,” the report says. It also notes that Russia appears to be attempting to discredit the regional countries’ reaction capabilities and overall defence preparedness.

As part of Russia’s 2024 military reforms, the structure of the Russian Armed Forces has undergone significant changes. The former Western Military District, which bordered Latvia, was dissolved and replaced by two new military districts: the Leningrad Military District and the Moscow Military District. According to MIDD, this restructuring was officially presented by Moscow as a response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

In addition to this reorganisation, Russia has also begun forming new military units and restructuring existing ones, at least formally, in line with its broader military reform plans. For example, a new army corps has been established in the Republic of Karelia, a region bordering Finland.

Closer to Latvia, two motorised rifle brigades from the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army—currently stationed near the Latvian border—are in the process of being upgraded into full divisions. Similarly, the Baltic Fleet’s marine brigade, based in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, is also being transformed into a division.

Despite these developments, Latvian intelligence emphasised that the creation or expansion of new units does not yet indicate an actual increase in Russian troop presence near Latvia’s borders. The report notes that the majority of Russian military assets remain committed to operations in Ukraine.

Moreover, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, both strategic and operational-tactical exercises within the Russian armed forces have noticeably decreased. Latvian intelligence attributes this reduction to shortages in manpower and military equipment resulting from the ongoing conflict.

The report concludes that under current conditions, Russia lacks the resources and capability to initiate another major ground operation on a strategic level, especially while its forces remain heavily engaged in Ukraine.

By Tamilla Hasanova