National Bank estimates low likelihood of quick end to hostilities in Ukraine

The National Bank of Ukraine considers the rapid end to active hostilities in Ukraine to be unlikely, with a probability of less than 15 per cent.

At the same time, there are high risks of escalation in the conflict and further destruction of industrial capacities, Caliber.Az reports per Russian media.

For the first time, the National Bank has assessed the likelihood of a swift conclusion to active combat operations. While the National Bank does not provide specific forecasts on the war's duration, it does evaluate the risks to the economy.

The National Bank assesses the probability of quickly implementing a large-scale recovery plan for Ukraine as low, with less than a 15 per cent chance. Similarly, the likelihood of rapid restoration of damaged infrastructure and acceleration of the country's European integration processes is also considered minimal. 

"Military risks for Ukraine remain amid global geopolitical tensions. At the same time, there is a possibility that efforts by the international community to reach agreements for a just and lasting peace for Ukraine could be realized in the near future," the bank’s report states.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of the following developments is considered high (25-50 per cent): increased geopolitical polarization of countries and, consequently, fragmentation of global trade; escalation of hostilities; further destruction of industrial capacities; greater electricity deficits due to continued damage to energy infrastructure; and the emergence of additional budgetary needs.  

On January 28, Ukrainian MP Fedir Venislavsky urged against expecting a quick end to the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. He stated that such thoughts and statements only harm the country’s national security and defence capabilities. 

On January 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked that achieving a swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine would be impossible. He claimed that US President Donald Trump could potentially accelerate the process through the implementation of sanctions and economic pressure on Russia.

By Naila Huseynova