National Review: How Xi could get Taiwan without firing shot

National Review has published an article arguing that a political development on the other side of the Pacific could be more consequential on the Taiwan question than the Chinese leader’s summit with President Biden. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

The recent meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been touted as one that could reduce tensions between the two powers. Another meeting that took place on the other side of the Pacific, however, holds greater promise to reduce the risk of war in the near future: the agreement between two Taiwanese opposition parties to run a joint ticket in January’s presidential election. That decision might be better news for China than for America.

Taiwan’s vibrant democracy is often praised but more often misunderstood. Taiwanese voters have recently been supporting the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the large party most vocally supportive of Taiwanese de facto independence. But that has only developed since 2012.

That’s where the opposition announcement comes in. The DPP’s presidential candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-te, has been leading in the polls. Candidates for the two main competitors trail but, when combined, outpoll Lai by ten points or more. Taiwan’s president is elected by popular vote with no runoff; the person with the most votes, no matter how few, wins. If the joint ticket could hold onto that polling support, the opposition candidate would easily win the presidency.

The two parties involved, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), have not chosen which of their parties’ nominees would head their joint ticket. But both have signalled a more conciliatory approach to managing relations with China than Lai Ching-te has. A victory by the KMT–TPP alliance would likely reduce the odds of President Xi’s ordering an invasion of the island nation in the near future and thus reduce the chances of a U.S.–China war.

Paradoxically, however, that might work to China’s long-term advantage. Its long-stated goal is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, preferably peacefully but by war if necessary. A Taiwanese leader whose primary goal is to avoid invasion could thus be open to making significant concessions to China to prevent that calamity.

No sensible person wants war. But the consequences of Taiwan’s becoming an effective province of China over time are worth contemplating.

Taiwan’s leading position in advanced semiconductor manufacturing is the first factor to consider. The country’s manufacturers produce 65 per cent of the world’s supply of chips and 90 per cent of the most advanced ones. Chinese military and economic capabilities are currently held back by a lack of access to the most advanced chips. Control of Taiwanese semiconductor technology, whether acquired directly or indirectly, would be a huge win for Xi’s ambitions.

Then there are the old-fashioned facts of geopolitics. China’s naval bases are subject to a potential blockade by U.S. allies in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Take Taiwan out of that equation, and the Chinese navy, in the event of a possible war, would have a path to the Central Pacific without having to run a U.S.-led gauntlet.

Moreover, there’s the possible impact that China’s establishing de facto control over Taiwan might have on other U.S. allies in the region. The Philippines, for example, already trades more with China and Hong Kong combined than it does with the United States. It has been trying to balance its economic interests in supplying China with nickel and other raw materials with its political interest in staying out of China’s grasp. But if Taiwan were to become China’s aircraft carrier directly to its north, the Philippines — which has no modern combat aircraft to speak of — would be even more vulnerable to Chinese pressure.

This means that Biden and other U.S. policy-makers will need to deepen their relationships with Taiwanese leaders even more if the KMT–TPP alliance wins. Our interest in the island is to keep it out of China’s orbit for the foreseeable future. We cannot become complacent if the immediate threat of war recedes.

This will mean finding economic and other measures to persuade the new president to maintain his distance from China. That could be expensive, especially if the new president decides to play China and the U.S. against one another. It remains in our interest, however, to pay the price even at the risk of reigniting tensions with Beijing.

Nonetheless, one cannot say with certainty that a new president will remain committed to tilting closer to China, especially after that person engages directly with President Xi. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was widely viewed as the less nationalist of the two final contenders for that nation’s presidency in 2019. We all know how those hopes were dashed by Vladimir Putin’s intransigence and hegemonic demands.

Ronald Reagan counselled decades ago that the only sure way to peace with an adversary was to surrender. Biden and his Republican opponents need to keep that fact firmly in mind as they negotiate our ongoing existential contest with China — one that we’ll face for years to come.