NATO without America — can Europe move fast enough to fight alone?

The Trump administration is reportedly contemplating handing a key NATO role to a European for the first time since the alliance was founded — a symbolic shift that underscores Washington’s growing detachment from Europe’s defence. 

In a future where American reinforcements no longer cross the Atlantic, Europe finds itself unprepared for a war it assumed would always be fought with U.S. backing, Caliber.Az reports, citing Politico.

This strategic reckoning has arrived amid the simulated outbreak of a European war in 2030. A Russian blitz through the Suwałki Gap has exposed the continent's critical vulnerability: the assumption that the United States would always provide the muscle and logistics behind NATO's defence. With American warships absent from the Atlantic horizon, Europe is scrambling to sustain a response on its own, and the challenges are staggering.

For decades, NATO’s military logistics were predicated on rapid American reinforcement. Ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp were geared to unload U.S. troops and hardware, and NATO transport routes, stretching west to east, were built for incoming American forces. That backbone is now looking worryingly brittle.

Europe lacks the heavy airlift capacity, military cargo vessels and even the specialised vehicles required to move its tanks and armoured units. Strategic dependencies run deep: fuel networks, air-to-air refuelling, cyber defences, and satellite surveillance all remain anchored in U.S. capabilities. Without them, Europe would not be just slower to react — it would be potentially defenceless.

Coordination is another gaping weakness. Military mobility in Europe still depends on NATO’s Reinforcement and Sustainment Network, managed from Ulm, Germany by the Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC). But JSEC falls under the authority of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe — a position long held by an American general. As this role now risks being handed to a European, the shift is as much symbolic as it is structural, marking the potential decline of U.S. leadership in the alliance.

Even if Europe develops the necessary capabilities, moving them across the continent remains a logistical nightmare. Much of the road and rail infrastructure is not designed to bear the weight of modern military equipment. Bridges are too weak, tunnels are too narrow, and red tape still throttles movement. In wartime, bureaucracy might be waived — but poor infrastructure and lack of clear coordination cannot.

Efforts to fix the problem are underway. The European Commission is drafting plans to ease military mobility by targeting 500 logistical bottlenecks. New infrastructure investment, regulatory reforms and a European ports strategy are in motion. But these efforts still presume U.S. involvement — a potentially fatal miscalculation.

If the Americans no longer arrive, Europe’s defensive plans risk collapsing under their assumptions. As former U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges warns, “The problem has got to be solved — regardless of whether the U.S. is there or not.” Otherwise, the next conflict could begin with empty ports, idle tanks, and a continent alone at war.

By Aghakazim Guliyev