New chapter in US vs. China rivalry

Foreign Affairs reveals in a recent article that for years, the US feared China’s rise would eventually eclipse its global dominance. 

But as China faces economic stagnation, demographic challenges, and diplomatic setbacks, the narrative has shifted. Yet, according to experts Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, underestimating China's strategic power could be a dangerous mistake, one that could change the course of global competition in the coming century.

US foreign policy discussions, which for years focused on China’s growing wealth, power, and ambition, have recently shifted to concerns about its stagnation and potential decline. Several factors have contributed to this change, including disappointing post-COVID economic growth, troubling demographics, and a foreign policy that has alienated many global powers. This shift has led to a new consensus that a weakened China may no longer be a threat to surpass the US.

However, in a new essay, Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi warn that this emerging consensus dangerously underestimates China's continued influence and the challenge it presents to US foreign policy. They argue that Washington is overlooking a critical advantage held by Beijing, one that only a refreshed approach to alliances can counter. As they note, if the United States chooses to act unilaterally, “the contest for the next century will be China’s to lose.”

Campbell, who served as deputy secretary of state and Indo-Pacific coordinator at the National Security Council during the Biden administration, is now the chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group. Doshi, an assistant professor at Georgetown University and director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, previously worked as deputy senior director for China and Taiwan affairs at the National Security Council under President Biden.

In a conversation with Dan Kurtz-Phelan on April 14, Campbell and Doshi discussed the sources of Chinese power, common misconceptions in US analysis of China, and whether the Trump administration has a clear strategy or endgame in its ongoing confrontation with Beijing. Their analysis provides a timely reminder of the complexities of US-China relations as both countries continue to navigate a rapidly changing global landscape.

By Naila Huseynova