New military conflict unleashed by Armenia to end in its defeat Experts on Caliber.Az

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's interview with Public Radio, during which he urged to consider the provisions of the Declaration of Independence from the prospects of neighboring countries, and expressed his view that if the declaration is retained, "we will have war and never peace," at first glance suggests that in Yerevan, at least in the top leadership, there is a discussion on the prospects of a peace treaty. Which is unlikely to be durable as long as Armenia's Declaration of Independence contains direct calls to annex Karabakh and violate Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. On the other hand, there are still no specifics about even the approximate timing of the constitutional referendum.

All the more so, knowing very well about the Armenian authorities' propensity for wagging and prevarication, one wonders whether this is not a ploy on Pashinyan's part, which is aimed at dragging out the time? But if Pashinyan is determined to amend the constitution, can he count on the support of Armenian society? Is it capable of taking a reasonable step?

Caliber.Az editorial board asked these questions to competent experts.

Thus, according to member of Azerbaijani Milli Majlis, Rasim Musabayov, Pashinyan simply has nowhere to go, as the decisive moment has come for Armenia - to live in fantasies or in real life.

“If in fantasies, then Armenians will suffer real damage. Because in such a case Armenia will be the culprit of the fact that its relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye do not work out, that it is in a regional deadlock and feels itself under military pressure from outside. And that Armenia, which has territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Türkiye, will never get rid of its status as a Russian vassal. So let all of Armenia, not just Pashinyan, decide and make a choice. But regardless of what the Armenians decide, whether they make amendments to the Constitution or not, the reality that Azerbaijan has fully restored its territorial integrity and sovereignty cannot be changed by any papers or voting. Now let Armenians decide for themselves what they want - to live in the world of their fantasies and their claims, without the possibility to back them up with military and political force, or to turn into a normal state living in peace and good-neighborliness. This is the essence of the choice during the referendum. And then Azerbaijan will decide whether to continue negotiations with Armenia on normalization of relations or not," Musabayov said.

In her turn, Ph.D. in Political Sciences, Class 1 Active State Advisor of the Russian Federation, Tatyana Poloskova noted that when Pashinyan held the first talks with Ilham Aliyev after Armenia's surrender, he knew and remembered this clause in the Armenian Constitution perfectly well.

"If Pashinyan was sincere, he would already then have raised the issue of amendments to the Armenian Constitution. By the way, a number of experts also drew attention to this point, puzzling over the behavior of Pashinyan, who did not raise this issue for so long, at least for the last three years, and at the same time was engaged in negotiations with Azerbaijan. My opinion here is simple - Pashinyan did it deliberately, he reached the present moment, when, like a magician pulling a hare out of a hat, he pulled out this forgotten argument, saying let's vote on changing the Constitution of Armenia. Frankly speaking, I don't know how they will vote in Armenia, and I don't undertake to guess on this topic. But I can confidently say that this is another game of Pashinyan," Poloskova underlined.

According to her, even if a referendum on amendments to the Armenian constitution is imagined, the scenario could be the following: the people, fueled by revanchists, take to the streets demanding to leave the reference to Karabakh in the Constitution, which could lead to another escalation of the conflict in the region, although this is not necessary for anyone - neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan.

"But it is quite obvious that the military conflict unleashed by Armenia will end in its defeat," Poloskova concluded.