NYT: Conflict with US, Israel weakens Iran’s strategic coordination

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has fractured the Iranian government, hampering its ability to make decisions and coordinate larger-scale retaliatory strikes, according to officials familiar with US and Western intelligence assessments.

While Iran’s security and military agencies continue to operate, the government’s ability to formulate new strategies or policies has been weakened, The New York Times reports.

Since the start of the war, several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed. Survivors face communication difficulties and avoid in-person meetings out of fear that their conversations could be intercepted by the US or Israel, making them potential targets for airstrikes.

As leaders are killed and replaced, Iranian negotiators may be uncertain about what concessions their government is willing to make during talks. US officials reported that hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have gained influence, holding more power than the religious leadership that nominally rules the country.

Officials said compromised Iranian communication channels have fueled paranoia among the remaining leaders, who fear their calls and messages are monitored by Israeli intelligence. As a result, according to officials familiar with Western intelligence assessments, they are reluctant to make calls.

A senior US official stated that Iran’s command and control system has been severely disrupted by US and Israeli strikes. Nonetheless, before the war, Iran had established a decentralised command structure, allowing local commanders in different regions to make independent decisions about attacks. The official noted that the US is specifically targeting these local commanders.

By Jeyhun Aghazada