Pakistan’s solar revolution shields nation amid energy crisis due to Iran war

When liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices spiked to record highs following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Pakistan’s fragile power system buckled. Heatwaves intensified demand, gas shortages deepened and millions faced repeated blackouts as electricity became both scarce and unaffordable.

Out of that crisis emerged an unexpected shift: a rapid, bottom-up expansion of rooftop solar, according to the Guardian.

“People who could afford to do it at that time realised that it was much cheaper and cost-effective and better for them in the long run to do a one-time investment in rooftop solar as opposed to keep paying high electricity bills from a grid that is also unreliable,” said Nabiya Imran, an associate at Renewables First, a Pakistani thinktank.

Falling solar panel prices and government incentives allowing households to feed excess electricity back into the grid accelerated adoption. The results have been striking. According to data from Ember, solar’s share of Pakistan’s electricity generation increased fivefold between December 2021 and December 2025. Renewables First estimates that solar accounted for roughly one-fifth of the country’s grid-supplied electricity in 2024.

That expansion is now cushioning Pakistan from a fresh global energy shock. As war in Iran disrupts tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global oil and gas — analysts say distributed solar has softened the blow to Pakistan’s power sector.

“While we’re certainly seeing some impacts, the expansion of distributed solar in the country has provided a cushioning effect against the impacts [of the energy crisis] which could have been much worse had solar not been present in the country,” Imran said.

Daytime solar generation has reduced reliance on gas-fired power, particularly during peak sunlight hours. Even before the latest crisis, Pakistan had begun diverting LNG cargoes from a long-term supply deal with Qatar due to declining gas demand. Although LNG still makes up about one-fifth of the power mix, it is increasingly reserved for evening peaks.

Analysis by Renewables First and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that by February 2026, Pakistan’s solar boom had helped avoid approximately $12bn in oil and gas imports.

“Distributed solar has been a blessing for Pakistan, preventing at least any immediate supply crunches in the gas sector. Pakistan serves as a great case study as to how renewables can provide a hedge against dependence on fossil fuels,” said Haneea Isaad, an energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

Yet Pakistan remains vulnerable. More than 90% of its LNG and oil imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, Isaad noted. In 2024, fossil fuel imports consumed over 10% of GDP. Pump prices have risen roughly 20%, straining transport and driving inflation, while LNG disruptions have affected fertiliser production.

The government has introduced emergency measures, including temporary school closures and remote work for public employees, to curb fuel use. Power minister Awais Leghari told Reuters that “the people-led solar revolution” alongside investments in nuclear, hydropower and domestic coal had reduced exposure to LNG shocks, though prolonged disruption could trigger summer shortages.

Imran argued that scaling electric vehicles, grid upgrades and battery storage would further reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

“If anything, the crisis will probably motivate more people to adopt rooftop solar as well as battery storage in the future. For Pakistan, and I think for a lot of other countries, the energy transition towards renewables is no longer just about climate but it’s a matter of energy security,” she said.

Across Asia — where 80% of oil passing through Hormuz is destined — the crisis has exposed similar vulnerabilities.

“Asian economies really have every incentive to accelerate the move towards renewables. It is actually a win-win both in terms of availability as well as in terms of cost, including storage,” said Ramnath Iyer of IEEFA.

As Dinita Setyawati of Ember put it, the region stands at “a really important juncture,” with renewables, grids and storage forming what she called “the holy trinity solutions for the energy dilemma for the whole of the Asia region.”

By Sabina Mammadli