Rightward drift: Poland’s political landscape after Nawrocki’s victory

Poland has taken a decisive step to the right following the narrow presidential victory of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. According to a post-election analysis published by the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, Nawrocki’s win not only shifts the country’s political center of gravity but also reveals deeper currents of disillusionment, inequality, and strategic realignment in both domestic and international affairs. With voter turnout reaching a record 72 per cent, the result is as telling as it is unsettling for those who had hoped the liberal-conservative Civic Coalition (KO) could maintain its grip on power.

Nawrocki won 50.8 percent of the votes in a tense runoff against KO’s Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.1 percent. This slim margin belies the broader implications of the election. The victory has already triggered instability at the top. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, also from KO, called for a confidence vote in parliament the day after the election to reassert his weakened mandate.

This uncertainty comes at a time when the governing coalition, formed by KO with Trzecia Droga (Third Way) and Lewica (The Left), is already showing signs of internal fracture. Nawrocki’s ascent significantly strengthens PiS’s position ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections and raises the possibility of a future governing alliance with the far-right Konfederacja.

The role of the far right in shaping the election outcome was critical. In the first round, Konfederacja’s Sławomir Mentzen and the even more radical Grzegorz Braun collectively secured about 20 percent of the vote. As the second round approached, Mentzen assumed the role of kingmaker. Nawrocki agreed to all of Mentzen’s demands without hesitation, signaling an ideological convergence between PiS and the extreme right. Trzaskowski, by contrast, made only partial concessions and relied instead on optics, including a photo-op with Mentzen over beers in a pub. This strategy failed to persuade far-right voters, and Trzaskowski ultimately could not maintain the coalition momentum that had propelled KO into power in 2023.

Support for KO has eroded significantly since then. According to the foundation’s analysis, 44 percent of the public now views the government negatively, compared to only 32 percent who see it in a positive light. Despite relatively strong economic growth, many Poles have not benefited from it, and the government’s failure to make progress on key social issues—such as abortion reform, same-sex partnership registration, and restoring judicial independence—has further fueled discontent. The presence of President Andrzej Duda, also from PiS, and his repeated veto threats have only deepened legislative gridlock, hampering the coalition’s ability to deliver.

The social divide in voting patterns is stark. Trzaskowski dominated among college graduates, urban residents, women, and professionals, while Nawrocki won large majorities among rural voters, people with basic education, manual laborers, and the unemployed. While gender and class divides were pronounced, age-based voting differences were surprisingly minimal, in part because Nawrocki managed to absorb Mentzen’s young male voter base.

Internationally, Nawrocki’s win signifies a regional victory for Trump-style politics. The election occurred shortly after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a development that has influenced Poland’s foreign policy direction. Both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski support strong ties with the United States and investment in national defense, but Nawrocki is far more aligned with Trump’s worldview. At a CPAC event in Poland just days before the runoff, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem endorsed Nawrocki, saying that “the Polish people will have an ally [who is] strong” if they chose a leader willing to cooperate with Trump.

This alignment has significant consequences. Nawrocki agreed not to send troops to Ukraine and pledged to veto Ukraine’s NATO membership—positions in sync with Trump’s isolationist approach. This suggests that Poland will pursue an increasingly militarized yet inward-facing foreign policy, focused less on European integration and more on bilateral ties with Washington.

With PiS and KO dominating the scene, prospects for the Polish left are grim. Lewica remains a junior partner in an increasingly unstable coalition, unlikely to see its policy agenda fulfilled. However, the non-coalition leftist party Partia Razem gained ground in the election, carving out a more independent space. Whether it can grow into a credible alternative amid the hardening right-wing consensus remains to be seen.

By Sabina Mammadli