Rising emissions to slash Antarctica’s ice cover by 25%, experts predict

Researchers from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) have warned that if current levels of greenhouse gas emissions persist, Antarctica’s ice sheet could shrink by 25% by the end of the 21st century.

The ice sheet, which currently covers around 12 million square kilometres, has been gradually retreating since 2016, a trend linked to global warming. 

JAMSTEC’s computer models suggest that, under continued emissions, the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere will increase by 1.5 times by 2100, leading to a dramatic loss of Antarctic ice, Caliber.Az reports referring to foreign media.

However, the researchers note that reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 could prevent this decline and stabilize the ice sheet.

The rapid melting of West Antarctica’s ice shelves could significantly raise sea levels, threatening coastal regions across the globe.

The study also highlights the growing difficulty in detecting meteorites in Antarctica, as the ice melts. Currently, meteorites are easily found on the ice’s surface, but by mid-century, the continent is projected to lose 25% of its meteorite reserves, with losses possibly reaching 76% by 2100, depending on emissions levels.

In addition to the ice loss, scientists are also concerned about a change in Antarctica’s landscape. Over the past 35 years, satellite data has shown that vegetation in the region is increasing.

The main types of vegetation in the Antarctic Peninsula are mosses and lichens, which grow on bare rocks in harsh conditions. These plants have created the foundation for soil formation.

The area of vegetation has grown by more than tenfold, from 0.86 square kilometres in 1986 to 11.95 square kilometres in 2021. Field research confirms this growth, showing that moss has expanded significantly faster in the last 50 years, likely due to warmer temperatures and the melting of glaciers.

“This is a direct result of climate change, which is turning icy land into new areas for plant growth,” said Thomas Roland, one of the study’s authors.

While the growth of vegetation may seem positive, it raises concerns. The region’s cold-adapted plants may soon face competition from more aggressive species that humans could introduce or that may be carried by the wind.

"We need to understand what will happen as ice gives way to greenery," Roland added.

These findings underscore the immense impact of climate change, even in the most remote and extreme areas of the planet.

By Tamilla Hasanova