Russia sees sharp decline in oil, gas revenues by half

Russia’s federal budget continues to see a sharp decline in oil and gas revenues, the Ministry of Finance announced.

In January, the treasury collected 393.3 billion rubles (around $5.12 billion) in oil and gas taxes—half the amount recorded in the same month last year, Caliber.Az reports via Russian media.

In nominal terms, resource rent flows to the budget fell to their lowest level since July 2020.

Measured relative to GDP—around 2%—the revenue appears to be a historic low “for the whole Putin era,” noted Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Receipts from the key mineral extraction tax (MET) plunged nearly 60% compared to January 2025, dropping to 440.3 billion rubles (around $5.74 billion) from 1.05 trillion rubles (around $13.67 billion). Export duty revenues fell 44% to 40.7 billion rubles (around $530 million) from 73 billion rubles (around $951 million).

Finance Ministry data point to a “budgetary catastrophe,” analysts at MMI, an independent Russian economic analysis group, write. Instead of the $59 per barrel projected in the budget, Urals crude fell to $39 in December and $40 in January. In ruble terms, the oil price used to calculate taxes dropped to 3,073 rubles per barrel (approximately $40), well below the 5,440 rubles (approximately $71) needed for budget targets.

“For the budget, the situation looks difficult,” said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance. Sanctions pushed Russian oil discounts to $27 per barrel in January, reducing MET and export tax revenue and keeping the risk of a larger deficit high.

The government had aimed to cut last year’s 5.7 trillion ruble (approximately $74.2 billion) deficit to 3.8 trillion (approximately $49.5 billion) through higher VAT and small business taxes. In reality, the Finance Ministry may fall short by 3–3.5 trillion rubles (approximately $39–45.6 billion) in oil and gas revenues—nearly 40% of the budgeted amount, MMI estimates—almost fully depleting the National Wealth Fund, which holds 4.1 trillion rubles (approximately $53.4 billion) in liquid assets.

By Jeyhun Aghazada