Russian wheat exports to reach new record-level with 4.4 million tons in October

Russia could export 4.4 million tons of wheat in October of this year, which would for the first time the beginning of this season exceed the to-date levels from the previous year.

The Kommersant reports this, referring to data published by Sovecon, a Russian consulting firm conducting agricultural studies.

Analysing the current October export levels, Russia could surpass its previous year’s performance for the same period by reaching 4.4 million, when only 3.3 million tons were sold last year while having average levels of 3.9 million tons. This would be amidst summer levels (July to September) for 2022 made up only 10.2 million tons, which was 22% less than the previous years' indicator.

However, market players do not share this optimism and forecast that while October may still be a normal month in terms of supplies, November is expected to yield terrible results due to reduced demand. This is caused by Egypt and Pakistan experiencing difficulties regarding delivery payments on the one hand and Turkey having shifted to Ukrainian wheat on the other.

Market experts have said that based on the balance sheet of the Russian government, it is necessary to reach a wheat export level of 48 million tons this season, but 43 million tons is valued as an equally passable level.

It was common for Russia to export larger amounts in the first half of the season, while today the export levels remain the same throughout the whole season. This year's second half of the season is facing additional threats caused by export quotas and the new harvest to be collected by Australia and Argentina.