Study: Trump enforcement agenda could cost US labour force millions

A new study warns that the Trump administration’s immigration policies could drastically reduce the U.S. workforce, potentially shrinking it by 6.8 million people by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035.

The analysis, conducted by the Washington, D.C.–based think tank National Foundation for American Policy and first shared with Axios, emphasises that fewer workers could slow economic growth and reduce the nation’s overall production of goods and services.

The projected decline in the workforce could also affect U.S. demographics and make it harder to revive manufacturing jobs or attract workers in key sectors such as health care, agriculture, and energy, especially as the population ages. New entrants into the labour force would not fully offset the loss, leading to significant net reductions.

The study estimates that by 2028, 2.8 million fewer workers would result from changes to legal immigration, while 4 million fewer would stem from crackdowns on undocumented immigrants. By 2035, roughly one-third of the projected 15.7 million fewer workers would be due to policies affecting legal immigration.

Since taking office, President Trump has pushed for stricter enforcement by the U.S. Border Patrol and ICE, targeting undocumented immigrants, including more than 1.2 million people who previously had temporary protection due to war, persecution, natural disasters, or poverty. Legal immigration restrictions also include a pause on refugee admissions, the 2025 travel ban, and new limits on international student work programs.

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson defended the administration’s approach, stating that Trump’s plan to create jobs would leverage “untapped potential” while enforcing immigration laws.

She emphasised that over 10% of young adults in the U.S. are neither employed, in higher education, nor in vocational training. Earlier this year, Trump signed an executive order to modernise workforce programs, aiming to prepare citizens for high-paying, skilled trade jobs.

The study warns that aggressive immigration enforcement could reduce average annual GDP growth by about half a percentage point between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2035, while also increasing the federal debt. These estimates are based on Congressional Budget Office tools and do not account for potential productivity losses from restricting access to high-skilled foreign workers, which could further slow growth.

The administration has set a goal of deporting 1 million immigrants annually, although ICE’s highest single-year deportation total was 409,849 in FY 2012 under President Obama.

The National Foundation for American Policy cautions that if the Trump administration reaches its deportation target, the impact on the labour force could be even more severe than projected.

By Tamilla Hasanova