Ukraine, West prepare for an uncertain future Opinion by Responsible Statecraft

An article on the Responsible Statecraft platform discusses Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's concerns that Western support for Ukraine, particularly from European countries and the USA, may diminish as the US elections approach. Caliber.Az provides insight into the article.

As November’s election nears, Ukraine and NATO countries are preparing for the possibility that European and American leadership may show less enthusiasm in supporting Kyiv's war efforts.

Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration is strategizing how to handle sensitive issues like reevaluating NATO's role and managing the conflict in Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made his first visit to Ukraine since the war began, coinciding with Hungary's EU presidency rotation. Orban, who has opposed EU and NATO efforts to aid Kyiv and sanction Moscow, reportedly suggested an immediate ceasefire to Ukraine's leader this week.

Orban commented after the meeting, "International diplomacy moves slowly. I suggested to the president to consider reversing the sequence and accelerating peace talks with a rapid ceasefire."

Meanwhile, experts suggest Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is closely monitoring global developments and signals, preparing for the prospect of a second Trump presidency.

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Politico this week, "Zelenskyy understands the situation. He observed the U.S. presidential debate and the initial round of French and EU elections—and recognizes that to maintain support, he needs to collaborate with all relevant parties."

NATO, set to convene in Washington for its annual summit next week, has been working to safeguard its support for Kyiv from potential shifts in U.S. policy under Trump. Questions persist, however, over funding commitments and sources. Foreign Policy recently reported that Washington has contributed nearly half of NATO's 40 billion euros in annual aid over the past two years.

Politico also covered Trump's potential advisors' approaches to transatlantic relations, suggesting significant changes if he returns to power in 2025. Plans include a "radical reorientation" of America's role in NATO and possible assurances to Moscow regarding NATO's eastward expansion.

Politico notes, "A quick resolution to the Ukraine conflict, ongoing for two-and-a-half years, would likely feature prominently in Trump's NATO strategy." According to two national security experts aligned with Trump, his plan may involve NATO committing to no further eastward expansion, specifically in Ukraine and Georgia, and negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukrainian territories.

Trump himself has remained vague about his plans to end the war, emphasizing that Europe should shoulder more of the responsibility for Ukraine's aid. He asserts that the conflict would not have occurred under his leadership and suggests resolving it before assuming office again if reelected.