US attacks on Iran: What will Khamenei choose — war or negotiations?

US President Donald Trump's decision to strike Iran's nuclear facilities has placed the Middle East in an extremely unstable situation, CNN notes. Now the world's attention is focused on Tehran and the possible moves of the Iranian leadership.

Diplomacy — one of the scenarios

According to several analysts, one possible path for Iran could be a return to diplomatic negotiations. As former head of Israeli military intelligence Amos Yadlin told CNN, the current situation could become “a serious incentive to end the war and save the regime.” In this case, Iran might declare readiness to negotiate, including on the condition of zero uranium enrichment.

However, the question remains: will Iran’s conservative circles be able to accept a diplomatic response to a direct attack from the US?

Retaliation — a path to escalation

Another scenario could be military retaliation, which may drag the US and the entire region into a prolonged conflict. CNN global affairs analyst Barak Ravid notes that Iran has repeatedly warned that if the US participates in the conflict and attacks nuclear sites, there will be strikes against American forces and interests in the region.

Among possible actions is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil trade. This could cause a sharp rise in energy prices and put pressure on the global economy. As Ravid emphasised, “this will hit Trump’s economic agenda.”

A harsh statement was also made by Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of Kayhan and a close ally of Iran’s Supreme Leader. He declared directly: “After the American attack on Fordow — now it’s our turn.”

The decision is up to Khamenei

According to analyst Aaron David Miller, now the Supreme Leader of Iran faces a difficult decision. “It is hard to imagine that the 86-year-old leader, whose goal is to preserve the revolution and pass it on to his successor, will remain silent,” he said.

Experts do not rule out that Tehran may choose not a direct escalation but a more complex and multi-stage response. However, one thing is clear: the consequences of the US attack on Iran are only beginning to unfold.

Background

On June 21, the United States conducted airstrikes targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities, including the heavily fortified Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, as well as sites in Natanz and Isfahan. These strikes were described by U.S. President Donald Trump as a "very successful attack" aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear program, with claims that the targeted sites were "completely and fully obliterated." The operation reportedly involved U.S. warplanes, with coordination from Israel, which had conducted prior strikes to weaken Iranian air defences in the days leading up to the attack.

By Khagan Isayev