"Without Ukraine, Moldova won't be admitted to the EU" Insights from Moldovan politician

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Dmitry Chubashenko, a Moldovan political figure and candidate for the presidency from the "Our Party" in the 2016 elections, shared his insights.

— Dmitry Alekseevich, it has been reported that the results of the first round of elections did not determine the future president of Moldova. In your opinion, does the current president, Maia Sandu, stand a chance of winning in the second round?

— Currently, President Maia Sandu, who was nominated by the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), has around 42% of the vote. This figure aligns closely with the predictions made during the campaign. I believe Sandu has a strong chance of winning in the second round on November 3. Interestingly, most of the ten other candidates are in opposition and have criticized Sandu throughout the campaign. To put it mildly, they are not on friendly terms with one another.

— What are Alexander Stoianoglo's chances of victory, as he is Sandu's main competitor?

— Indeed, the first round of the presidential elections revealed an unexpectedly strong performance from Maia Sandu's main rival, former Attorney General Alexander Stoianoglo. He was nominated by the Socialist Party, led by former president Igor Dodon, who is also regarded as a pro-Russian politician. While experts had predicted that Stoianoglo would garner around 20% of the votes, he actually received 26% in the first round. It is also possible that some of the eliminated candidates may throw their support behind Stoianoglo. I believe that if the opposition can unite around him, he will have a chance at the presidency. However, if the opposition remains fragmented, Sandu is likely to retain her position.

— How would you assess the referendum's results on amending Moldova's Constitution?

— In my view, the results of the referendum on constitutional amendments initiated by Maia Sandu were quite surprising in the voting held on October 20. The proposed law put to the plebiscite aimed to add a clause to the preamble of the Constitution recognizing the European identity of the Moldovan people, affirming the irreversibility of the European path, and declaring EU integration as a strategic goal for Moldova. It also suggested a new section in the Constitution titled "Integration into the European Union," which would include an article on "Joining the Founding Treaties and Acts Amending the Founding Treaties of the European Union." According to these amendments, EU legal acts would take precedence over Moldovan laws, and the parliament would make decisions about EU accession through organic laws, requiring a majority of elected deputies.

The initiators expected a decisive victory, aiming for at least 70% approval in the referendum. However, they ended up with a margin of only a few tenths of a per cent over the opponents of Euro-integration, and this was largely due to voting at overseas polling stations. Consequently, the referendum will be deemed valid, and the proposed changes will be incorporated into the Constitution. I believe this outcome represents a rather unimpressive victory, indicating a near 50/50 split in Moldovan society on this issue.

— In one of our previous discussions, you suggested that Moldova's integration into the EU would imply the country's entry into NATO. Do you still hold that view?

— The fact is that in recent years, the distinctions between the EU and NATO in military and political terms have become increasingly blurred. Today, EU integration effectively also means NATO integration, as 24 out of the 27 EU member states are also NATO members. The North Atlantic Alliance is already actively engaging with Moldova, assisting in the reform of its national army and security forces. One of the reasons for the rise of Euroscepticism, as evidenced in the presidential elections and the referendum, stems from concerns that Moldova could be stripped of its constitutional neutrality against its will and drawn into an armed conflict in the region.

— In your estimation, what is the timeline for Moldova to become a member of NATO and the EU?

— The experiences of Ukraine and Georgia show that having constitutional provisions for joining both the EU and NATO often carries more symbolic than practical significance. Although Moldova has been granted candidate status for EU membership, the actual accession negotiations can take many years or even decades, without a clear timeline for the country's admission to the EU. It appears that Moldova faces a similar fate, especially since its prospects are tied to Ukraine. The outcome and timing of the war in Ukraine remain unclear, but without some resolution to the conflict, Ukraine is unlikely to be accepted into the EU, and without Ukraine, Moldova will not be admitted either.

— Is there a possibility for dialogue between Chișinău and Tiraspol in the future?

— During her four years in office, Sandu has never visited Tiraspol or met with the de facto leadership of Transnistria. The ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in Chișinău views the separatist region as a pro-Russian enclave, which they see as a "burden" hindering Moldova's progress toward the EU. If Sandu secures a second term, this same policy—characterized by a lack of dialogue, peace, or war—is likely to continue.

In contrast, Stoianoglo stated during his campaign that his first visit as elected president would be to Tiraspol, to restore dialogue between Chișinău and the Transnistrian administration. He envisions eventually granting the region autonomous status within Moldova. Therefore, future interactions between Tiraspol and Chișinău will depend significantly on who holds power in the government.