Ynet: Could Israel and Türkiye’s competing interests in Syria lead to geopolitical standoff?

Tensions between Israel and Türkiye have reached an unprecedented high, fueled by recent Israeli military actions in Syria and Ankara’s growing assertiveness in the region.

With no clearly defined strategy from Jerusalem, its multi-pronged approach in the Syrian theatre has raised alarms across the region, prompting warnings from analysts and former diplomats of a potentially dangerous escalation, Caliber.Az reports via Ynet.

Israel's military activities in Syria have intensified in recent weeks, heightening friction with Türkiye as both countries manoeuvre for influence in the fragmented state. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have ramped up airstrikes against various factions within Syria, reinforced their military presence near the Golan Heights, and deepened engagement with groups such as the Druze and Kurds. Critics argue these actions reflect a lack of cohesive policy, describing Jerusalem’s approach as unfocused and reactive.

A major flashpoint has been Israel's alleged targeting of four Syrian airports, including the T4 air base near Palmyra in Homs province. Reports suggest Turkish military units, particularly drone operators, were preparing to use the facility—prompting a stern response from Israeli leaders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterised Türkiye’s military expansion in Syria as a direct threat, while Defence Minister Israel Katz warned Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa that Israel would hold Damascus accountable for hostile entrenchment.

In response, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in English at a NATO meeting in Brussels, stated Ankara does not seek conflict with Israel and reaffirmed Türkiye’s support for Syrian sovereignty. His comments, likely aimed at reassuring Western partners, underlined Ankara’s desire to avoid open confrontation.

However, analysts note that Ankara considers Syria vital to its strategic interests. Turkish commentator Mustafa Özcan stressed that Türkiye will not cede influence in Syria to Israel. Lebanese analyst Omar Ma'arabouni added that economic considerations—including a potential gas pipeline linking Qatar, Syria, and Türkiye—underpin Ankara’s regional ambitions, which could be threatened by Israel’s actions.

The United States has expressed concern over the deteriorating relationship between two of its key regional allies. During a joint appearance with Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump claimed he would mediate, highlighting his rapport with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. American officials are reportedly encouraging the creation of a coordination mechanism, similar to Israel’s past arrangement with Russia, to avoid confrontation. 

Elsewhere in the region, Arab governments have remained largely passive. Lebanese scholar Ahmad Ajaj has urged Arab states to step up and play a stabilising role in Syria, warning that continued disengagement could see the region fall further under non-Arab control. Azmi Bishara, a Qatar-based political figure, echoed these concerns, arguing that only Arab involvement can counterbalance both Israeli and Turkish ambitions.

The Israel–Türkiye rift is part of a broader decline in bilateral ties. Erdoğan’s recent Ramadan address included inflammatory rhetoric against Israel, widely interpreted as an attempt to shift focus from domestic political challenges following the arrest of opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu. In parallel, Israel is said to have lobbied Washington to block the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye, while continuing to accuse Ankara of sheltering Hamas operatives plotting attacks from Turkish soil.

Some Israeli officials and experts have cautioned against allowing relations with Türkiye to deteriorate further. Former ambassador to Egypt and Ankara, Amira Oron, emphasised the importance of diplomatic engagement. “Despite Erdogan’s hostility, Türkiye plays a key role in Syrian stability. Israel would do well to engage Ankara diplomatically rather than risk a military clash.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev