Ukraine's Zelenskyy floats ceasefire offer in return for NATO security guarantees

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed his readiness to agree to a ceasefire in occupied areas, provided that the territory controlled by Kyiv is placed under NATO’s umbrella and that diplomatic negotiations are subsequently held to reclaim the annexed territories. 

Thus, the Ukrainian president stated that he would be willing to halt the fighting if the territory controlled by Kyiv was placed under NATO’s protection, Caliber.Az reports via French media.

Only later, he added, could Ukraine “recover” the territories annexed by Moscow through diplomatic means, according to his translated comments on the British channel.

However, General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN has expressed scepticism regarding this approach

General Trinquand's analysis

“The timing is no coincidence,” he said. “The Ukrainian army is facing significant difficulties on the ground, US President Joe Biden suggests that Ukraine should mobilize young people from the age of 18, and the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to power (with his inauguration on January 20) is also looming.

Thus, there is both military pressure on the frontlines and political pressure from the Americans. Zelenskyy wants to acknowledge these realities and make proposals. He had previously mentioned the idea of diplomatic negotiations, but this is the first time he’s raised it in a major international media outlet.”

Trinquand believes this shift signals a failure, stating, “On the substance, this sounds like an admission of defeat.” He also questioned the potential reaction of NATO members to Zelenskyy’s proposal, suggesting that the alliance may prefer to remain silent in order to avoid highlighting his missteps.

“Everyone knows that negotiations will be necessary, but they must begin on different terms. Diplomats often say the ultimate goal is to restore internationally recognized borders, but the reality of war must be taken into account.”

He further argued that Zelenskyy’s proposal was unrealistic, saying, “Since when does one announce the outcome of negotiations before they begin, claiming to recover lost land? You’ll never bring President Putin to the negotiating table under these terms. It’s completely unrealistic.”

NATO’s role and the Russian perspective

The general also pointed out that NATO’s involvement is precisely the reason President Putin justified his invasion of Ukraine in the first place.

“Putin has used NATO’s eastward expansion as an excuse for the war,” Trinquand said. 

He remarked that bringing NATO into the conversation is equally unacceptable to the Russians: "To negotiate, both parties must be willing to engage, and Zelenskyy has failed to grasp this. His actions are a ‘blow in vain,’ unless the goal is simply to demonstrate that Putin is unwilling to negotiate and rejects every proposal.”

Moscow’s likely response

On the prospect of Moscow’s reaction to such proposals, Trinquand observed that Putin had previously stated his intention to occupy the annexed territories. He suggested that offering to reverse this decision would likely prompt a firm refusal from Russia:

“If you tell Putin you’re going to do the opposite of what he wants, he will just respond: ‘I’m not even going to discuss this plan.’”

How could a ceasefire be implemented?

Trinquand outlined a possible approach to a ceasefire, suggesting that Ukraine must continue to receive military support to avoid appearing weak, thereby putting pressure on Russia. The first step, he proposed, would be to call for a ceasefire, with troops deployed along the demarcation line.

He suggested involving European countries in this process by asking them to contribute forces to ensure the ceasefire holds. In the event of any attacks on these forces, NATO could intervene for protection. After that, lengthy negotiations could begin, covering territorial issues, Ukraine’s status, security arrangements for Russia, and more.

The road ahead: Is a ceasefire likely?

While Trinquand acknowledged that a ceasefire was unlikely in the immediate future, he said that the situation could change rapidly.

“It will be very complicated, but who knows where we’ll be in two months? A lot can happen. Russia has its own problems, particularly in Syria, where it is being asked for help as rebels advance," he said.

In conclusion, although a ceasefire remains a distant prospect, the dynamics surrounding the conflict in Ukraine continue to evolve, with international and domestic pressures shaping the future of negotiations.

By Aghakazim Guliyev