Are we facing future world without coffee?

The global coffee industry is facing unprecedented challenges as climate change severely disrupts production. With over 2 billion cups consumed daily, demand for coffee is soaring and could double by 2050. However, half of the land suitable for coffee cultivation might no longer be viable by then, leading to soaring prices. The shortfalls in supply are most evident in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee producers, as climate-related issues hit both nations hard.

In Brazil, responsible for 40% of the global coffee supply, extreme weather events have decimated crops. A devastating frost in 2021 wiped out plantations the size of Mauritius, and ongoing erratic weather — including droughts and extreme heat — continues to harm production. According to an article by the Indian Finshots publication, the arabica coffee bean has been particularly affected. Farmers face irreversible damage to crops despite recent rains, which will likely reduce next year’s harvest as well.

Vietnam, a major producer of robusta beans used in instant coffee and other products, has also encountered climate-related hurdles. Prolonged dry spells and a typhoon have raised concerns about declining yields. While robusta beans are more heat- and pest-resistant than Brazil's arabica, Vietnam’s farmers are shifting away from coffee to grow durians, a pungent fruit whose demand, especially in China, has skyrocketed. Durians are far more profitable, offering farmers five times the revenue of coffee. This shift exacerbates the global coffee shortage as Vietnam reduces its coffee output, compounding Brazil’s production struggles.

The dual impact of reduced production from these leading coffee producers has caused coffee prices to spike. Robusta prices, in particular, have seen their sharpest increase since 2010, reflecting the growing scarcity of coffee.

In response, the industry is exploring alternatives to traditional coffee cultivation. One promising development is synthetic or no-bean coffee made through biotechnology and food science. These substitutes, crafted from ingredients like chickpeas or upcycled agricultural waste, or even lab-grown cells from coffee plants, mimic the taste of coffee while avoiding the environmental challenges tied to deforestation and climate impacts. However, these innovations might result in slight changes to coffee’s flavor, presenting more of a workaround than a long-term solution.

Some countries are also exploring opportunities to cultivate coffee in new regions as global temperatures rise. For instance, nations like the U.S., Argentina, Uruguay, and China are beginning to grow coffee in areas previously unsuitable for its production. While these efforts are promising, they are unlikely to fully compensate for the declines in output from top producers like Brazil and Vietnam.

The most effective solution lies in addressing climate change directly. Protecting wild coffee species — over 120 varieties exist, though only arabica and robusta dominate the market — could open avenues for crossbreeding resilient strains that withstand pests, diseases, and climate shifts. By mitigating climate change and leveraging the genetic diversity of wild coffee, the industry can work toward sustaining global coffee production in the long term.

By Nazrin Sadigova