Armenia doubts resolution of CSTO membership issues in 2025 Intelligence Report Finds

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia (FIS) has assessed that it is unlikely the reasons for suspending Yerevan's participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will be resolved in 2025.

The findings are outlined in a report by the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service on the primary risks and threats facing the country this year, Caliber.Az reports via Armenian media.

"Despite the provisions of the founding treaty, the inability (or ineffectiveness) of the CSTO to address issues in the South Caucasus, which are among its core objectives, is unlikely to change in 2025. We consider it improbable that the factors behind Armenia’s decision to suspend its CSTO membership will be resolved next year," the report stated.

To recap, on December 4, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Armenia has not submitted any formal documents indicating an intention to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). His remarks came during a press conference, responding to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent assertions that Armenia’s ties with the CSTO had reached an irreversible point.

Lavrov acknowledged Pashinyan’s repeated comments on a possible withdrawal but stressed that Moscow would not impose its perspective on Yerevan. He reaffirmed Russia’s belief that Armenia’s CSTO membership aligns with its security interests.

Tensions have grown since the CSTO’s lack of support during the 2020 Karabakh war and subsequent clashes with Azerbaijan in 2022. Pashinyan has criticized the organization’s inaction, while Russian President Vladimir Putin clarified in 2024 that the CSTO was not obligated to intervene as there was no external aggression against Armenia.

By Aghakazim Guliyev