Armenian military expert: Resisting Azerbaijan's might hard task

Armenian military expert Narek Nersisyan has said that Armenia's heavy losses as a result of the battles with Azerbaijan on September 13-14, 2022 were caused by a number of factors, such as a sufficient number of fortifications on the line of contact, the availability or lack of the necessary weapons, organisational problems, etc.

An analysis of the causes that led to such losses requires a sound and unbiased assessment, Nersisyan said in an interview with the Armenian media, according to Caliber.Az.

The expert said that the large-scale escalation of the situation on the border on September 13-14, 2022, had very serious consequences for Armenia in terms of human losses.

As it turned out later, 207 people were among the killed and missing for two incomplete days of hostilities (much more in reality). These figures drew the attention of many experts and politicians, Nersisyan added.

He noted that former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said at a recent press conference that such heavy losses could have been avoided if the line of contact had been equipped effectively and the soldiers had been protected.

The expert said that the Armenian military and political leadership did not draw conclusions after the 44-day second Karabakh war.

Meanwhile, the military expert urged to look at the situation from a broader perspective, believing that the insufficient level of fortifications is not the key reason.

"Perhaps, the second president does not fully understand the specifics of modern warfare, if he considers the insufficient level of fortifications as the main reason for our losses. Of course, there is no doubt that the line of defence could have been better organised. However, even the most protected line of defence will not save from big losses if the enemy, in this case, Azerbaijan, uses certain weapons," Nersisyan said.

He added that during the escalation, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces used not only mortars and large-calibre small arms, but also long-range cannon and rocket artillery, as well as combat drones and kamikaze drones.

The expert said that resisting such power, without having similar means or having few of them, is not an easy task.

"In the current conditions of confrontation on the battlefield, Armenia has two solutions - either it is necessary to make preventive strikes, or to have a multi-layered air defence, the best option – both of them. Unfortunately, we do not have the required number of long-range strike systems or air defence systems. I assume that the allies and military-technical partners did not supply them to us. We should talk about this too," Nersisyan said.

As for engineering work, the former officer thinks that during the two years after the 44-day war, the Armenian military leadership could and should have created long-term concrete fortifications,  surveillance cameras and other technical solutions. However, in any case, all this will be partial if the arsenals are empty or half empty.

While commenting on the situation on the front line now, during "no war, no peace" conditions, the expert said that "given the current military capabilities, inflicting of maximum damage on the enemy should be Armenia's main operational and operational-tactical task".

Nersisyan said that the new conflict could become much bigger, given the number of direct or indirect potential participants.

Here the interests of global and regional powers collide. That is why the new war will not be an easy walk, the expert said.

During these conditions, the expert considers the extremely low, “almost zero” managerial level of the Armenian political leadership as another problem.

He noted that of course, there are individual initiatives that can have a positive effect in terms of the country's interests, but in general, the current policy does not meet the existing challenges.

Both the actions of the opposition members and the recent statements of Armenian first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan pose the danger to the country, the expert said.

Nersisyan is sure that "Armenia lost the battle in the 44-day war, but if internal and external processes continue, this can lead to real surrender".