ASEAN faces challenges amid rising US-China rivalry

Southeast Asia's significance in China's investment and diplomatic strategies is growing, particularly as tensions rise between Beijing and Washington.

As highlighted in a recent article by the South China Morning Post, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces significant challenges in maintaining its relevance amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The ongoing rivalry between the US and China poses serious challenges for ASEAN, potentially exposing divisions within the bloc. Observers warn that if the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations fails to navigate this competition effectively, it risks losing its global significance. ASEAN member states have historically emphasized their non-alignment, but this stance may become increasingly untenable as divisions grow over their respective approaches to the superpowers. Muhammad Waffaa Kharisma from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta notes that the ideal of ASEAN as a cohesive regional platform is at risk as countries lean toward either the US or China.

Recent developments indicate a shift in allegiances; for example, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has moved closer to the US in response to China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. Kharisma argues that if ASEAN cannot assert its own voice on regional issues, the challenges of reaching a consensus may increase, potentially leading to stagnation.

To counter these pressures, ASEAN has sought to strengthen ties with both China and the US while also engaging with other nations like Japan and Australia. However, managing divisions on contentious issues such as the South China Sea and the political situation in Myanmar complicates ASEAN's efforts to foster unity. Kharisma notes that the bloc's response has relied on past diplomatic strategies, like the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality declared during the Cold War.

Despite its historical successes, ASEAN faces a “fading spirit of multilateralism” as individual member states increasingly express distinct preferences and positions. This fragmentation complicates negotiations, often resulting in vague or non-committal statements on pressing issues. The recent diverging preferences between member states, highlighted by surveys indicating fluctuating alignments with either the US or China, exemplify these challenges.

Analysts suggest that ASEAN must proactively shape its strategic environment, consolidate economic integration among members, and consider diversifying partnerships beyond traditional powers. As tensions mount, the capacity for ASEAN to maintain neutrality and effectively manage relationships amid superpower competition will be vital to its future relevance.