Can Israel's targeted assassinations weaken Hamas and Hezbollah?

In a recent article from The Economist, the effectiveness of Israel's targeted killings against Hamas and Hezbollah is scrutinized, challenging the prevailing skepticism that such strategies yield no lasting impact.

Historically, many argue that these groups are resilient, citing past experiences where leadership decapitation did not dismantle their organizations. However, the article posits that the unique circumstances surrounding recent events may indeed lead to a different outcome this time.

The first argument against the effectiveness of targeted killings is rooted in historical precedent. Audrey Kurth Cronin’s research suggests that decapitation strategies primarily work against small, nascent groups. In contrast, both Hamas and Hezbollah have established leadership structures, having survived significant losses in the past. Yet, The Economist highlights that the frequency and scale of recent Israeli operations are unprecedented, potentially eroding the organizational capabilities of both groups more significantly than before. The deaths of several top commanders and the incapacitation of key figures like Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar could lead to a leadership vacuum that less experienced successors struggle to fill.

The structural argument also holds weight. Both Hamas and Hezbollah operate as political and economic entities, not merely militant groups. Israel's actions have severely weakened the economic foundations of these organizations, particularly Hamas, which faces a devastated economy in Gaza, undermining its ability to govern effectively. Hezbollah, traditionally strong due to its economic patronage, is similarly strained, leading to dissatisfaction among its fighters and supporters.

Finally, the philosophical assertion that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah are mere "ideas" that cannot be extinguished is challenged by the article. Drawing parallels to the downfall of the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood, it suggests that while these groups may not be entirely eradicated, substantial violence and repression can marginalize them significantly. The article concludes that Hamas and Hezbollah are institutions that could be replaced by other forces within their communities, leading to instability.

In summary, The Economist presents a nuanced perspective on the efficacy of targeted killings, suggesting that the context and conditions surrounding such actions may alter their historical ineffectiveness. This analysis raises critical questions about the future dynamics in Gaza and Lebanon, where power vacuums may give rise to new, potentially more volatile entities.

By Vugar Khalilov