China’s role may be key to preventing wider Middle East war

The stakes are high: a prolonged conflict between Israel and Iran threatens not just regional stability but global energy markets and supply chains. An analysis by Foreign Policy suggests that Beijing could emerge as the only outside power capable of pressuring Tehran to de-escalate the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

While the US has unmatched influence over Israel, China wields significant leverage over Iran, creating a rare opportunity for cooperation between the two global powers.

The Foreign Policy piece argues that both Israel and Iran retain incentives to continue fighting. Israel believes sustained military pressure, particularly with continued US support, could weaken Iran’s military capabilities and expose fractures within the Iranian political system. Conversely, Iran views survival under military pressure as a victory, allowing the regime to claim restored deterrence and demonstrate that any attempt to overthrow it comes at a high cost. Iran has already employed missile and drone attacks across the region, from Cyprus and Israel to Oman, threatened the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted Gulf energy facilities, driving up global oil prices.

While the belligerents see potential gains from escalation, other regional actors, particularly Gulf Arab states, prioritise stability. Their economic strategies depend on stability, and even a limited conflict threatens tourism, aviation, logistics, real estate, and investor confidence.  Gulf governments face a dilemma: failing to respond to Iranian attacks risks appearing weak, but retaliating could escalate the war and associate them politically with Israel. The priority, the article emphasises, is not victory but containment.

The United States, meanwhile, finds its position precarious. The Trump administration entered the conflict without a clear long-term strategy, initially assuming a low-cost operation could weaken Iran’s regime, similar to perceived successes in Venezuela. Yet Iran’s ruling elite remains cohesive, managing succession pressures while preserving internal control. Any continued Iranian threats to shipping or attacks on Israel risk drawing Washington further into the conflict.

This is where China’s role becomes pivotal. Foreign Policy highlights that Beijing approaches the Middle East primarily as an economic arena. China’s previous diplomatic success in brokering the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement demonstrates its capacity to mediate regional tensions. With China importing around 5 million barrels of Iranian crude daily—roughly 90 per cent of Tehran’s oil exports—Beijing has both motive and leverage to press Iran toward de-escalation.

The analysis notes that “China can make clear that threatening energy flows and widening the war would impose costs not only on the United States and its partners but also on one of Iran’s few indispensable economic relationships.”

Foreign Policy concludes that the Middle East offers a rare area of US-China convergence. While China is unlikely to act as a peacemaker in dramatic fashion, its risk-averse caution lends credibility. For Washington, coordinated efforts with Beijing, potentially through the Gulf Cooperation Council, may be essential to prevent a regional conflict from becoming a global crisis.

When US President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing later this month, the agenda should not stop at tariffs and trade. The more urgent question is whether the world’s two largest powers can work together to keep a regional war from becoming a global crisis, the analysis points out. 

By Sabina Mammadli