Clash over Orthodox conscription sparks warning on Israel’s future

Israel’s two-year war in Gaza — alongside military operations in the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, and Syria — has stretched the country’s forces thin. While most Jewish men and women are required to serve at least two years in the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), one group has long been exempt: ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Haredim.

A political battle has intensified in recent months over whether this exemption should continue, following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that opened the way for Haredim to be drafted, triggering widespread backlash.

Former national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi has now openly criticised a proposed law aimed at restoring and formalising these exemptions, as reported by The Times of Israel.

The proposal, authored by a fellow member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, has become one of the most contentious issues facing the government.

Hanegbi warned that the revised bill “enables evasion” and poses a threat to Israel’s future. The draft legislation, unveiled on November 27, would preserve military service exemptions for full-time yeshiva students (Orthodox school) while nominally increasing enlistment among graduates of Haredi educational institutions.

Critics argue that the changes are largely cosmetic and designed to preserve the status quo, under which the overwhelming majority of Haredi men do not enter military service.

The controversy follows the Supreme Court’s June 2024 ruling that full-time Haredi students could legally be conscripted, overturning decades of blanket exemptions. The decision provoked fierce opposition. Last month, hundreds of thousands of Haredi men staged one of the largest ultra-Orthodox demonstrations in years, filling the streets of Jerusalem in protest.

Hanegbi — a longtime Netanyahu ally who was removed from his post last month, reportedly over disagreements regarding war policy in Gaza — stressed that the IDF urgently needs thousands of additional combat soldiers. He argued that the proposal “does not advance” that goal and leaves the military burden on the shoulders of “a relatively small few.”

Demographic trends underscore the long-term significance of the issue. Israeli media outlets, citing government data, estimate the Haredi population at around 1.26 million as of late 2024 — roughly 12.5% of Israel’s total population. Although the fertility rate among Haredi women has fallen to a 43-year low of 6.1 children per woman, population projections indicate that Haredim will make up between 20% and 22% of Israel’s population by 2065.

He emphasised that while Torah study is a deeply respected value in Israeli society, “it must be combined with the value of defending the state and its citizens.”

For the past year, Haredi leaders have pushed vigorously for legislation that would keep their community largely outside the IDF, despite the High Court’s ruling. Currently, an estimated 80,000 Haredi men between the ages of 18 and 24 are eligible for military service but have not enlisted. According to the IDF, at least 12,000 new recruits are urgently needed to relieve the strain on active-duty and reserve forces after months of intensive operations on multiple fronts.

By Nazrin Sadigova