EU caught in limbo over Russian LNG sanctions as Trump’s stance remains unclear

With U.S. policy on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) hanging in the balance, Europe now faces a defining moment in its energy and security strategy, as noted by foreign media.

Behind the barbed wire fence at the Terehova checkpoint in Latvia, once a bustling transit hub between the European Union and Russia, the impact of sanctions is unmistakable, Caliber.Az reports.

“This is the last stop on the road to Moscow,” said Raimonds Zukuls, head of Latvia’s customs service.

“Before the war, 300 trucks a day used to come through here, taking goods over. Now, because of sanctions, it’s maybe half that.”

The European Union remains at a crossroads over whether to impose stricter sanctions on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its decision largely hinging on the shifting policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. While the EU has made strides in reducing its reliance on Russian energy, officials are cautious about taking the next step without a clear signal from Washington.

Trump’s administration has taken an ambiguous approach, threatening additional sanctions on Moscow while simultaneously floating the possibility of easing restrictions as part of broader negotiations over the war in Ukraine. That uncertainty is stalling EU efforts to introduce fresh energy measures, including a long-awaited roadmap for eliminating dependence on Russian fuel.

“We are still moving forward with the roadmap, it is being prepared, but the timing has changed in light of the latest geopolitical developments,” said a senior European Commission official.

The EU’s hesitation is also linked to ongoing talks with Washington over a potential deal to increase American LNG exports to Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has argued that U.S. gas could serve as a viable alternative. “Why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices?” she suggested in November.

Despite the EU’s commitment to energy diversification, some European states remain wary of fully severing ties with Russian gas. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia, which continue to rely on pipeline deliveries from Moscow, are hesitant to support an outright ban on Russian LNG. The issue is further complicated by the requirement for unanimous agreement among EU members to impose new sanctions.

Latvia, which stopped purchasing Russian gas at the start of 2024, has taken a firm stance on strengthening transatlantic cooperation. “The United States is a strategic partner and ally of Latvia and the entire EU,” said Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže. “We are interested in strengthening energy cooperation with our strategic partner, the U.S., including increasing LNG imports.”

For EU policymakers, Trump’s ultimate decision on Russian energy sanctions will be pivotal. The outgoing Biden administration had imposed significant penalties on Russia’s shadow fleet—aging tankers that illicitly transport Russian oil worldwide. Without continued U.S. enforcement, European regulators would struggle to maintain pressure on the shadow fleet and uphold the Western-imposed $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil.

“The latest U.S. sanctions package was significant, but it’s not the final blow to the Russian economy,” said Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Trump is right on one thing: Unless the oil price drops below $40 a barrel, the economy will stay resilient — the problem is I have strong doubts that Trump is interested in seriously pressuring Russia economically.”

European leaders are concerned that any Trump-brokered ceasefire in Ukraine could prompt a push from certain EU members to lift sanctions, potentially reopening the door to Russian energy imports.

“Sanctions can only be eased or lifted if Russia is able to make amends and pays for the damage it has caused in Ukraine,” said Āris Vīgants, Latvia’s special envoy for sanctions. “Everyone must understand that returning to business as usual with Russia is impossible, even if some kind of peace deal is reached.”

The Baltic states and Poland are among those calling for a permanent break from Russian energy, arguing that Moscow has repeatedly used its resources as a political weapon. “Russian energy is poisonous — it comes with political manipulation and blackmail,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys. “The revenues of its sales go directly to funding Russia’s brutalities in Ukraine, but also to various sabotage and disinformation campaigns in our countries.”

With Europe awaiting Trump’s next move, officials remain locked in a strategic dilemma. A decisive U.S. policy shift could either reinforce EU sanctions or leave European leaders scrambling to maintain their stance against Russian energy.

By Aghazim Guliyev