Europeans open to Ukraine joining EU yet cautious of risks, survey shows before summit

The European Commission formally recommended last month that accession talks begin with Ukraine and Moldova. The EU’s 27 heads of government are due to discuss the proposal at a Brussels summit this week, with the accession of Ukraine into the bloc being on top of the agenda, but fierce opposition from member state Hungary could derail this proposition as only unanimous support can welcome new members.

As reported by the Guardian, a new opinion poll shows, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in six EU member states (Germany, France, Denmark, Poland, Romania and Austria) shows that large numbers of European citizens believe that Ukraine’s membership of the EU would undermine (45%, on average) rather than strengthen (25%) Europe’s security.

"Asked about the impact on their own country, only 15% of the French and 20% of the Germans expect any positives to manifest for their country’s security from such a move (and 39% and 47%, respectively, believe the outcome will be negative). Only in Poland do positive opinions clearly prevail (41% versus 30%).

For the western Balkan countries, there are similarly gloomy views, with few Europeans seeing their possible accession as having any upswing in benefits for the EU’s security (23% versus 33% believing the opposite). European politicians continuously restate that EU enlargement is necessary for geopolitical reasons. But they have not yet managed to bring European societies on board to support this view. The worry that accepting new members could drag the EU into conflicts appears to be greater than the conviction that their membership would insulate Europe from Russian or Chinese influences.

Still, the conversation remains open. A plurality (37%, on average) of the citizens in the six countries surveyed by the ECFR believe that Ukraine should be able to join the EU – and this often includes people who are aware of the negative consequences of such an event. It seems that the emotional support for Ukrainians is still strong and outweighs rational considerations.

There is less enthusiasm for the western Balkans countries, though. Only 20-30% of Europeans would like to see them as future members of the bloc. The differences in attitudes across the EU are significant. In Denmark and Poland, close to half of the populations (50% and 47%, respectively) support Ukraine’s accession. In Austria, only 28% are in favour, while 52% are against it. But in most countries, 20-40% of respondents do not have an opinion or are indifferent to the prospect of Ukraine’s accession, as well as to enlargement in general. This suggests that there is a large constituency of Europeans who can still be convinced that their own future depends – like never before – on the EU’s resolve to make use of its main asset: integration of its European neighbours into the sphere of peace and economic prosperity", the publication reports.

Regarding other countries, the polls have shown that "there was widespread opposition to the eventual accession of Turkiye in particular, as well as a markedly cool response to the prospect of Albania, Bosnia, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia joining the union".