France's military retreat in Africa signals declining influence as Russia, others gain ground

An article by UK-based news agency Reuters highlights a significant shift in France’s military strategy in West and Central Africa, with the French government planning a substantial reduction of its forces in the region. This move, according to the article, risks weakening France's influence in Africa, especially at a time when Russia and other powers are increasing their presence on the continent.

The article reports that a French envoy recently delivered a proposal to President Macron recommending a reduction in French military personnel stationed in key African countries, namely Chad, Gabon, and Ivory Coast. Currently, there are around 2,200 French troops in these countries, but the plan is to reduce this number to just 600. Chad, which has traditionally been a crucial strategic partner for France, is expected to maintain the largest French contingent of 300 troops, down from 1,000. This reduction is part of a broader strategy to reassess France’s military engagement in the region.

"For France it is the start of the end of their security engagement in central and Western Africa," said Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel Programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali. "Chad was the aircraft carrier of the French army, its logistical headquarters. If Chad doesn't exist, the French army will have a huge problem to keep running its other operations."

One of the most significant developments in the article is Chad’s unexpected decision to terminate its defense cooperation agreement with France. Chad has long been considered a key ally for France, especially in its fight against Islamic militants in the Sahel. The abrupt move by Chad was a shock to French officials and is seen as a major blow to France’s influence in the region. Chad’s government is seeking to assert greater sovereignty, particularly after over six decades of independence from France.

Chad has been a logistical hub for the French military, often referred to as the "aircraft carrier" of the French army in the region. Losing access to Chad as a base would significantly complicate France’s military operations across Central and West Africa, particularly in operations aimed at counterterrorism and humanitarian aid. Ulf Laessing, a director at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, comments that Chad’s move marks "the start of the end" for France’s security role in these regions. This indicates the severe implications for France’s future military engagement in Africa if its military bases in Chad and other parts of the region are dismantled.

The article also underscores the growing anti-French sentiment in parts of Africa, exemplified by the withdrawal of French forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following military coups and the rise of local resistance to foreign military presence. Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye also voiced that it is inappropriate for French troops to remain in Senegal, further illustrating the broader trend of declining support for France’s military presence in its former colonies.

The article emphasizes that France’s military retreat comes at a time when Russia is increasing its influence in Africa, particularly through the deployment of mercenaries in countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Russian involvement, in collaboration with local military regimes, is helping to combat Islamist militant groups in these countries. Russia, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are positioning themselves as alternative partners for African nations, offering security and economic assistance in ways that challenge France’s traditional role on the continent.

Despite this, the article notes that French officials downplayed Russia’s ability to fully capitalize on France’s retreat, particularly in Chad. Russia is involved in rival factions in Sudan and has significant military commitments in other regions, such as Syria and Ukraine, which may limit its ability to expand its influence in Chad or other parts of Africa in the short term.

The article also points out that France’s increasing focus on Europe, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, is drawing resources away from Africa. Budgetary constraints and the broader geopolitical shifts have led to a reorientation of France’s foreign policy priorities. The combination of France's withdrawal from Africa and the growing influence of Russia and other regional powers signals a shift in the dynamics of power on the African continent.

The article briefly touches on the US pullback from Africa, with a small contingent of US special forces leaving Chad earlier this year. This aligns with a broader trend of both American and French military withdrawals from the region, which contrasts with the rising influence of other countries like Russia.