Title: Water serves as glue of South Asian climate-security axis

As the global power axis shifts toward Asia, China’s growing role in South and Southwest Asia places it at the forefront of advancing regional climate security and confronting shared environmental threats.

Within this evolving landscape, experts believe that three regional powerhouses, namely China, India, and Pakistan, and one crucial issue that ties them together, water, will define the future of the "Third Pole" region.

This urgency is magnified by the limited headway made under existing multilateral platforms such as the Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Paris Agreement. As COP30 convenes in Brazil and the Paris accord marks its tenth anniversary, an article published by the Pakistani Dawn publication warns that millions across the region remain exposed to mounting climate hazards, with few effective safeguards in place.

Climate change is inherently multidimensional, demanding solutions that are multilateral and driven by a multipolar balance of power. Aligning these three dynamics is essential to ensure an equitable and sustainable path forward. Achieving this requires a strategic overhaul—one that places ecological survival at the core of regional foreign policy.

Since the 1980s, China’s transformation from a closed agrarian society to a global economic and technological force has made it the region’s most powerful actor. With a $19.23 trillion economy, a record of lifting 800 million people out of poverty, and control over nearly 1 trillion cubic meters of water as the uppermost riparian in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) system, the article argues that China holds a unique influence.

India, with 1.4 billion people and a $4.37 trillion economy, has made important strides since liberalising in the 1990s. Though malnutrition remains an issue, it has lifted 171 million people out of extreme poverty. As a mid-riparian country, India holds substantial water storage capacity—roughly 170 days’ worth—and remains key to regional water governance.

Pakistan, home to 240 million people, faces a resource-constrained future. Despite demonstrating resilience through periods of economic stagnation, the country’s path to middle-income status is hindered by rising climate-related losses, unsustainable population growth, and inflation. As a lower riparian country with just 30 days of water storage, it is the most vulnerable out of the trio.

All three countries are nuclear-armed and possess formidable militaries, yet they remain entangled in unresolved political conflicts. Ironically, they continue to overlook a shared existential threat—climate change—that poses far greater risks than any adversary.

Accelerated warming is destabilising the cryosphere, particularly in the "Third Pole", a term referring to the mountainous region of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) system, where glaciers and snowmelt sustain over a billion people. The fallout from ecological collapse could be more devastating than any war.

The article's authors forecast that future climate conflicts are unlikely to take traditional forms. Instead, they will unfold across domains: melting glaciers, rising seas, floods, forest fires, heatwaves, and superstorms. As carbon feedback loops accelerate, continuing to ignore these signals borders on reckless.

To avoid this fate, it argues that a cooperative riparian governance model is urgently needed to stabilise the HKH region’s water systems. Without it, environmental degradation may inflame existing tensions and push countries toward conflict over dwindling resources. Reframing water security as the foundation of regional stability—and placing hydro diplomacy at the center of strategic dialogue—is imperative.

China, as the world’s second-largest economy and the HKH region’s upstream power, is well-positioned to lead. With its growing middle class, advanced technological base, and interest in regional stability, Beijing could spearhead the formation of a regional COP, rotating among member states, with a core focus on cryospheric security.

Historically, China has maintained stability to fuel its prosperity. Convening a regional COP would not only rally HKH countries behind shared goals like sustainable water governance and risk reduction, but also showcase leadership rooted in ecological partnership over political divisions.

Building a joint regional approach to manage the Third Pole can draw key players to the negotiating table and create an ecological alliance focused on protecting natural systems and supporting human development.

Such a platform would provide the tools needed to address risks, foster resilience, and pursue long-term sustainability. However, without it, the article warns that the region faces a dangerous convergence of ecological breakdown and political instability.

By Nazrin Sadigova