From division to unity: How war transformed Ukraine’s identity

An article, published in Foreign Affairs, offers a comprehensive analysis of the transformative effects of Russia's full-scale invasion on Ukraine, focusing on shifts in national identity, public opinion, and social cohesion. The piece examines how the war has redefined Ukrainians' views on state sovereignty, their orientation towards the West, and their readiness to defend their country against foreign aggression.

The article highlights how Russia's invasion has reshaped public opinion on key issues. In the years before the war, Ukrainians held a more divided stance on their relationship with Russia and the West. Attitudes toward NATO and the EU were fragmented, with significant regional differences. However, the war has catalyzed a dramatic shift, uniting Ukrainians across linguistic and regional lines. The piece notes that while regional and ethnic distinctions had previously been significant, they have significantly diminished as the war has unified the population in the fight for Ukraine’s sovereignty and European future.

Public opinion data, collected by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), demonstrates that since the invasion, Ukrainians have become more supportive of their government and its institutions. For example, public approval of President Zelenskyy has surged from just 27 per cent in late 2021 to 84 per cent in December 2022, showcasing the rally-around-the-flag effect. The military, enjoying the highest levels of trust, saw its approval rise from 72 per cent to 96 per cent, reflecting growing national unity in the face of adversity.

Despite these positive shifts, the article acknowledges that the war has also introduced new social divisions, particularly between military personnel and civilians, as well as between displaced persons and those who remained in occupied territories. These tensions underline the complex social dynamics within Ukraine during wartime, where personal experiences of conflict shape perceptions of the state and its institutions.

One of the article’s most striking insights is the transformation in Ukrainians’ geopolitical preferences. Before 2014, the idea of joining NATO was not widely supported. However, after Russia annexed Crimea, support for NATO membership soared, driven largely by the perceived threat from Russia. By mid-2022, 81 per cent of Ukrainians supported EU membership, and 71 per cent favoured joining NATO, marking a clear departure from the prewar stance.

The article concludes by acknowledging that while Ukrainians face significant challenges in the ongoing war, their resilience remains strong. Despite a decline in optimism about the immediate future, the sense of national unity has only grown stronger, further reinforcing Ukraine's commitment to its European path. This newfound cohesion, coupled with a deepened resolve to break from Russia, signals a definitive pivot towards Europe.

In summary, this article from Foreign Affairs illustrates the profound changes in Ukrainian public opinion since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. It highlights how war has not only reshaped Ukrainians' perceptions of their state and its institutions but also realigned their geopolitical ambitions, further solidifying their commitment to a European future.

By Vugar Khalilov