IEA flags concerns over Russia’s oil export decline, production capacity

Russia’s weakening crude and oil product exports have raised questions about the country’s ability to sustain its upstream oil production, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency said that oil flows have been falling throughout most of 2024 and into 2025.

“Volumes of both crude and products remained at exceptionally weak levels in June, at a five-year seasonal low,” the IEA noted. The agency added that the continued decline “raises questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its upstream production capacity.”

According to the report, Russia’s daily crude oil loadings in June held steady at 4.68 million barrels, while exports of refined products dropped by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels per day, Caliber.Az reports per Bloomberg.

As one of the world’s top-three oil producers, Russia has stopped publishing detailed output and export data following its invasion of Ukraine. This has made it difficult for external analysts to assess the state of the country’s oil industry. In the absence of official figures, market observers now rely on a combination of IEA assessments, ship-tracking data, refinery activity estimates, and evaluations of Russia’s compliance with OPEC+ output quotas.

Bloomberg’s ship-tracking data also shows a decline in Russia’s seaborne crude exports, which in June hit the lowest levels since February. Still, refinery activity within Russia remained relatively strong despite seasonal maintenance, diverting more barrels to domestic processing rather than export.

The report adds that oil product exports dropped to their lowest level in eight months, a trend partly driven by government efforts to prioritize domestic fuel availability—especially for agricultural use during the summer season.

At the same time, Russia’s own figures suggest a slow increase in production as it tries to compensate for previous overproduction under its OPEC+ commitments. Although the oil alliance is gradually restoring supply to the global market, Russia’s return is progressing at a slower pace.

The IEA continues to estimate Russia’s sustainable upstream production capacity at 9.8 million barrels per day—levels that could theoretically be reached within 90 days and maintained over time. In June, Russia’s crude production, excluding condensate, stood at 9.19 million barrels per day, exceeding its OPEC+ target for the month by 140,000 barrels, according to the agency.

Despite the fall in export volumes, Russia’s oil export revenues climbed by more than $800 million in June to $13.6 billion, a 6.4% increase from May. This rise was driven by higher international oil prices amid mounting supply risks due to tensions in the Middle East, the IEA said.

By Sabina Mammadli