How domestic politics reshape Warsaw’s stance on Ukraine

As US-led efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine gain momentum, Poland—once one of Kyiv's staunchest supporters—has been notably absent from high-level talks, raising questions about its declining influence.

Since 2022, Poland has provided an estimated €4.5 billion ($5.2 billion) in military aid and hosts the critical Rzeszow-Jasionka hub for Western arms deliveries. However, an analysis conducted by the Kyiv Independent records that its early prominence has faded as resources dwindle and political dynamics have changed.

"Poland's foreign policy is used for domestic political purposes, meaning it is, in a certain sense, subordinated to them," said Michal Lebduska, an analyst at the Association for International Affairs (AMO), in an interview with the Ukrainian publication.

"This creates a whole set of problems, and from this set of problems comes the fact that Poland is no longer as reliable and important a partner for Ukraine as it once was."

During the first year of the full-scale Russian war, Warsaw leveraged significant resources to assist Ukraine, giving the impression of unwavering support.

"There was a lot of old Soviet equipment, some tanks, and other machinery," Lebduska explained, noting that this allowed Poland to react swiftly when the war broke out. "But now the problem is that, first of all, Poland no longer has the same resources it once did."

The rise of far-right parties such as the opposition bloc "Confederation", which frame aid to Kyiv as costly and largely unreciprocated, has complicated the political environment.

The article points out that uncertainty deepened after June 1, when right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki won the presidency. While Nawrocki condemns Russia’s aggression, he opposes Ukraine’s NATO and EU bids and accuses Kyiv of exploiting its allies.

"The problem is, we still don't know what Nawrocki's policy toward Ukraine will look like," said Polish political scientist Pawel Borkowski. "From the campaign and from his close ties to the Confederation party, there are suspicions he may take a less pro-Ukrainian stance."

Loud absence from Washington summit

Concerns intensified after Poland was missing from the August 18 talks in Washington, where European leaders joined President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump following the American leader's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Nawrocki’s absence drew criticism at home.

"Apparently, neither the US nor Ukraine saw any reason to talk to us. Despite our enormous assistance [to Kyiv] and our geographical location, we count for less than Finland. It's just sad," Confederation leader Slawomir Mentzen criticized on X.

Defending Poland’s absence, Nawrocki argues that he had already discussed the country’s position with Trump and European leaders earlier that week. He stressed that Poland was represented within the "Coalition of the Willing," a group of 33 states pledging security guarantees to Ukraine, by its government that is led by center-right liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk rather than the presidency.

Aleksandra Kusztal, a political scientist at Jan Kochanowski University of Kielce, linked the exclusion to poor relations between Trump and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had indirectly supported Democratic candidate Kamala Harris during the US election.

"These relations are bad. There is no element of so-called good chemistry between the two gentlemen (Trump and Tusk)," she told the publication.

Lebduska noted that both Tusk’s government and Nawrocki face challenges limiting their diplomatic reach. "On one hand, Tusk's government is not a strong partner for Trump and the current US administration," he said. "On the other hand, Nawrocki, with his anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western rhetoric, is also not a partner for Europeans."

Peacekeeping role rejected

As Kyiv’s allies debate peacekeeping missions after a potential ceasefire, Poland has ruled out sending troops.

"We will not send Polish soldiers to Ukraine. This is the government's position not for a week, but for many months," Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz declared on August 20.

Analysts say this reflects pre-election promises. Both the Law and Justice (PiS) party and Confederation had rejected sending troops during the campaign.

"During the presidential campaign, there were very strong statements that the Polish government would send Polish soldiers to Ukraine, which is not acceptable," Kusztal said.

She added that Tusk’s government is acting to reassure the public that deploying Polish forces is off the table. "I also think this could be one reason why Poland is not seen as a key player in the broader peacemaking discussions," she noted, highlighting how internal divisions, limited resources, and strained ties with partners have eroded Warsaw’s influence.

By Nazrin Sadigova