From Gaza to South Caucasus: Baku puts forward its stability doctrine Presidential aide, pundit speak to Media Line

The US-based The Media Line news outlet has published an article on Azerbaijan's role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Caliber.Az offers its readers some excerpts from the piece.

“As Israel weighs Türkiye’s role in any Gaza stabilization force, Azerbaijan is warning that security-first approaches to postwar reconstruction will fail without local acceptance and economic integration.

“Any stabilization force must be realistic, not symbolic,” Hikmet Hajiyev, senior foreign policy adviser to President Ilham Aliyev, told The Media Line. “It has to be accepted locally and coordinated internationally. We have seen many cases where security arrangements failed because they were imposed rather than constructed.” 

Azerbaijan is positioning itself at the center of a geopolitical contest that stretches from Israel and Türkiye through Iran, Russia, and the South Caucasus—a contest increasingly defined by corridors, energy routes, and strategic alignment rather than ideology alone. 

“Azerbaijan does not see itself as a bystander,” Huseyn Huseynov, an adviser to Azerbaijan’s minister of economy, told The Media Line. “We are building systems that link regions, reduce dependence, and create shared interests. That is how stability is constructed.” 

Reflecting on Azerbaijan’s own postwar reconstruction, Hajiyev warned that approaches focused solely on security will collapse.

“If there is no political horizon, no security mechanism will be sustainable,” he said. “Reconstruction without integration only postpones the next crisis.” 

At the center of Azerbaijan’s regional posture is a deepening partnership with Israel—one that officials and analysts describe as structural rather than transactional.

“Israel and Azerbaijan have a real strategic alliance, not a transactional one,” said Brenda Shaffer, a faculty member at the US Naval Postgraduate School specializing in energy and Eurasian security. “It goes far beyond oil and arms and has been developing steadily for three decades.” 

Hajiyev emphasized that Baku views its relationship with Israel as a long-term stabilizing partnership rather than a short-term tactical alignment. 

“Azerbaijan matters strategically because it is the only country in the world that borders Russia and Iran,” Shaffer said. “It also borders Türkiye through its exclave. Azerbaijan sits at the intersection of multiple important geopolitical fault lines.” 

That geography has elevated Baku’s value in Washington as the Trump administration looks to revive and expand the Abraham Accords—the 2020 agreements that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states—beyond the Arab world. 

According to Shaffer, the administration views Azerbaijan as “a strategically reliable Muslim-majority partner aligned with US and Israeli interests,” particularly as Washington seeks to translate diplomacy into physical infrastructure—rail, pipelines, electricity grids, and fiber-optic cables—that can endure beyond electoral cycles. 

Energy remains a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s regional influence, particularly as Europe and Israel seek alternatives to Russian supply.

“Azerbaijan’s energy role isn’t about replacing Russian gas,” Shaffer said. “It’s about diversification. Even modest volumes from an additional supplier fundamentally reduce vulnerability[...]”  

That logic now extends beyond crude oil. In 2025, Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR acquired a 10% stake in Israel’s Tamar natural gas field in a deal valued at approximately $900 million. As part of the same package, SOCAR—alongside BP—won a tender for offshore gas exploration in Israeli waters. 

Azerbaijan regained control of Karabakh and surrounding districts in a six-week war with Armenia in 2020, ending nearly three decades of Armenian occupation.

The war reshaped regional alignment: Russia’s inability to protect Armenia undermined decades of dependence, while Türkiye’s military and political support for Azerbaijan solidified Ankara’s role as Baku’s primary strategic partner. 

“Reducing Armenia’s dependence on Russian-owned infrastructure—energy, transport, and communications—is central to making any peace durable,” Shaffer said. 

Diaspora politics further complicate the picture. 

“The main Armenian-American lobby group, the Armenian National Committee of America, focuses most of its current activity against the Pashinyan government,” Shaffer said, highlighting a growing divergence between diaspora advocacy and Armenia’s domestic strategic calculations. 

Analysts suggest Azerbaijan would be unlikely to deploy forces in Gaza independently, but could align politically or logistically with Turkish initiatives.

For now, the shape of any Gaza stabilization force remains undefined, as Hamas’s position on disarmament continues to shift and Washington and Jerusalem diverge on Türkiye’s appropriate role. 

Azerbaijan’s growing diplomatic role reflects its ability to maintain dialogue with actors that often refuse direct contact. 

“Azerbaijan speaks to many sides who do not speak to each other,” Hajiyev told The Media Line. “We do not see mediation as taking sides. We see it as preventing escalation.” 

Conflicts like Gaza, he warned, do not remain local. 

“Their consequences travel,” he said. 

From Baku’s perspective, corridors are not neutral projects but instruments of alignment. They reduce dependence on hostile powers, bind partners through shared assets, and narrow the space for coercion by larger neighbors. 

“Any stabilization effort that ignores economic and political realities will fail,” Hajiyev said. “That lesson applies in the South Caucasus, and it applies in the Middle East,”” the article reads.