FT: US intelligence played key role in Ukraine’s escalating drone campaign

Ukraine has sharply intensified its long-range drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, contributing to what analysts describe as Russia's most severe fuel crisis in decades, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.

The report said the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's strikes is being driven by a significant increase in domestic drone production, improved operational planning, and intelligence support from the United States.

According to senior Ukrainian officials cited by the Financial Times, U.S. intelligence has helped Kyiv identify optimal drone flight paths, altitudes, and timing to improve the chances of penetrating Russian air defences and reaching strategic targets.

“Ukraine has had a technological breakthrough, which allowed them to produce more long-range drones and increase overall mass production,” Stefan Meister, head of the Eurasia programme at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told the newspaper.

The Financial Times reported that the intensified campaign is placing growing pressure on Russia's air defence network by forcing it to defend an expanding number of critical military and energy facilities across the country.

According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defence cited in the report, Russian air defences intercepted 14,195 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory in May and 17,832 in June. By comparison, monthly interception figures in January and February remained below 6,000.

Analysts at Rochan Consulting, cited by the newspaper, estimate that Russian oil refineries have been targeted 194 times since the beginning of the year. In May alone, Ukraine carried out a record 16 successful strikes on refinery facilities.

The attacks have had a significant impact on Russia's energy sector, the report said. Oil refining in central Russia has been severely disrupted, while refinery utilisation has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, according to the analysis.

The Financial Times also reported that some Western officials view Ukraine's drone campaign as a means of increasing economic pressure on Russia.

One Western official quoted by the newspaper described Ukrainian drones as a "tool" that could weaken Russia's economy and potentially increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.

However, according to sources in Moscow cited by the Financial Times, the Kremlin remains committed to its broader military objectives and is unlikely to engage in substantive negotiations to end the conflict before February 2027.

"The preferred option of the Russians so far remains that the Americans will 'deliver' Ukraine for us," one source told the newspaper. "They are not hinting at any concessions. They keep repeating the same objectives. Their basis for negotiations essentially means there is no basis for negotiations."

Ukraine has increasingly relied on domestically produced long-range drones to strike military, industrial and energy targets deep inside Russia, arguing that such attacks are aimed at degrading Moscow's ability to sustain its military campaign. Russia has condemned the strikes as attacks on civilian infrastructure and has responded with large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

By Sabina Mammadli