Harris and Trump neck-and-neck as US election day nears Close race intensifies

An article from The Economist outlines the current state of the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, noting that the competition remains exceptionally tight as the election approaches.

As the statistical model is set to be updated six more times before the votes are cast, recent polling indicates a slight increase in Harris's probability of victory, attributed to several key factors.

Firstly, the influx of 65 new polls has bolstered the model's confidence in its projections, allowing for minor fluctuations in voter sentiment to significantly impact win probabilities. The timing of these polls is crucial; with the election looming, the forecasts are shifting from predictive models to more immediate reflections of voter sentiment—what the article terms a "now-cast." The close nature of the race means that even small changes in vote shares can result in substantial adjustments to each candidate's perceived chances of winning.

The article emphasizes that while the latest polls for Harris might not appear overwhelmingly positive, certain polling firms have shown bias toward Trump, which the model adjusts for. Despite recent surveys indicating a tied race in battleground states like Pennsylvania, the adjustments made by the model have shifted the margins in Harris's favor. This is significant, especially as her projected vote share had previously dipped below 50% in many swing states, suggesting that even tied races now represent a relative gain for her.

As the candidates’ standings fluctuate, the article warns of the unpredictability inherent in polling. Historical patterns suggest that polls may underestimate support for one candidate, potentially swinging the election outcome decisively in their favor. Furthermore, with only six days left until the election, the potential for significant shifts in voter opinion diminishes. The probability forecasts may exhibit greater volatility as they reflect the weight of new data, with slight movements becoming harder to reverse.

In conclusion, the article paints a picture of an election fraught with uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of polls while cautioning against overreliance on them. As the final days unfold, both candidates remain neck-and-neck, with the prospect of a tight race continuing to dominate the political landscape.