India’s role in evolving global landscape

In an article published by Financial Times, countries around the world are reevaluating their security landscapes in an era marked by rising geopolitical tensions and shifting alliances.

I never paid much attention to airline route maps before, but now, when traveling between peaceful countries, I find myself more curious about our flight path. On a recent flight from London to New Delhi, I was astonished to see that the route took us between Donetsk in eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

We flew over Russia (on Air India), just north of Iran, then over Afghanistan, before finally reaching India. Journalists often refer to “trouble spots,” but this journey from Western Europe to India felt like navigating between two “safe spots” amidst a sea of conflict. How long can these safe areas maintain their distance from surrounding turmoil?

What strategies are best for safeguarding the peace and prosperity of nations living on the brink of war-torn regions? I've encountered varied perspectives on these issues during three recent trips to Germany, Bulgaria, and India. In Germany, opinions are sharply divided. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that Russia might attack a NATO country within five to eight years. Meanwhile, Norbert Röttgen, a key figure in the Christian Democratic opposition, argues that the best way to prevent this is to defeat Russia in Ukraine.

He advocates for increased military aid to Kyiv and a significant boost in German defence spending. Conversely, the far-right and far-left parties, which together represent about 30 per cent of the electorate, claim that it’s not Russia but the US and NATO that threaten European peace. They argue for abandoning Ukraine and fostering dialogue with Russia. 

This perspective is gaining traction in Bulgaria as well. One pro-NATO Bulgarian politician expresses concern: “We have ceded the term ‘peace’ to pro-Russian factions.” Bulgarian liberals worry that they may lose not only rhetorical battles against pro-Putin populists but also the essence of their democracy. With the country approaching its seventh election in three years, the reputation of Bulgarian democracy is waning. Liberals fear that their nation could become susceptible to the allure of a pro-Russian strongman, similar to Hungary's Viktor Orbán.

The democratic and sovereign advancements made since 1989 now feel increasingly fragile. Bulgaria's population is about 20 per cent that of New Delhi alone. Given India's vast size and distance from the conflict, its leaders tend to dismiss concerns that a victorious Putin could pose a threat to their security.

American, Japanese, and European policymakers have repeatedly attempted to convince their Indian counterparts that a Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden China, which engaged Indian troops in a deadly border clash in 2020. However, conventional wisdom in New Delhi still holds that India needs a strong Russia to counterbalance China.

In much of the Global South, Western arguments about Russian aggression and war crimes are often seen as hypocritical, especially given America's unwavering support for Israel. While Modi's India positions itself as a leader of the Global South, it views the Middle East quite differently. Shekhar Gupta, a noted Indian journalist, points out a prevalent pro-Israel sentiment among the Indian populace. A prominent member of the ruling BJP remarked, “The average party supporter fully supports Israel in its fight against Muslim terrorists.” India has abstained from several UN resolutions condemning Israel and remains a keen purchaser of Israeli weapons and technology. 

To the extent that Indians perceive a threat from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, their primary concerns revolve around rising oil prices, an increase in Islamist militancy domestically, and the safety of Indians working in the Gulf. The safety of Indian troops deployed with the UN in Lebanon may soon be added to these worries. Interestingly, even the challenge posed by China could present an advantage for India.

The country stands to gain as Western multinational companies seek to diversify away from China and reduce reliance on its technology. This effort was officially supported by the launch of a US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, which aims to enhance cooperation between the two nations in areas such as space, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence. 

Rising geopolitical tensions are viewed as both a business and strategic opportunity for India. Consequently, the pervasive sense of unease about global affairs that is evident in Europe and liberal America is notably absent in official Indian circles. Should Indians feel overly secure from the global conflicts and tensions? One troubling possibility is that various regional conflicts could become increasingly intertwined. 

These conflicts already intersect at various points: for example, Russia and China have conducted joint air patrols near Alaska and the Sea of Japan, while Iran has supplied arms to Russia. If Israel were to strike Iran, Russia might respond or seek to exploit the situation for its own benefit. With the Western alliance preoccupied with other conflicts, China may see an opportunity to increase pressure in Asia. If the tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia begin to converge, the repercussions could soon reach India's shores.

By Naila Huseynova