Iran could bypass blockade via Strait of Hormuz alternatives, analysts say

U.S. President Donald Trump is betting that economic pressure will succeed where weeks of air strikes have not, seeking to force Tehran into concessions through a newly imposed blockade, though analysts warn the strategy may misjudge Iran’s tolerance for economic strain.

The blockade began at 10 a.m. ET on April 13, following weekend talks in Islamabad that ended without a breakthrough. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed to retaliate, while officials in Tehran have warned of broader consequences for the global economy, including potential impacts on U.S. consumers. 

“Iran has several options for offsetting the economic effects of the US blockade, but their overall impact is uncertain,” Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN, adding that Tehran “could seek to ramp up oil and gas exports through alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.”

Alhasan said these alternatives could include gas exports via pipelines to Iraq, Türkiye and Armenia, as well as oil shipments through Iran’s Neka terminal on the Caspian Sea.

“Iran could also increase the smuggling of fuel through its long land border with Pakistan or evade the blockade by blending its own oil with Iraqi oil, as it has done in the past,” Alhasan noted.

He added that Tehran could also consider military responses, including potential attacks on U.S. naval vessels or encouraging Yemen’s Houthi movement to attempt a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

By Sabina Mammadli