"Iran faces an informal alliance of Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Israel on its northern border" Foreign pundits share their thoughts with Caliber.Az

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov will pay a visit to Israel to participate in the opening of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tel Aviv. According to the Israeli news portal Ynet, the visit will take place on March 29. Bayramov will hold talks with his colleague Eli Cohen, President Isaac Herzog, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the agency said.

As a reminder, the Azerbaijani Milli Majlis considered and passed the bill on the opening of the country's embassy in Israel on November 18.

The Israeli authorities welcomed the decision, stressing that the Republic of Azerbaijan is an important partner of the Jewish state and home to one of the largest Jewish communities in the Muslim world, and the decision to open the embassy reflects the depth of relations between the countries.

Azerbaijan's ambassador-designate to Israel, Mukhtar Mammadov, has already arrived in Tel Aviv and presented copies of his credentials to the Foreign Ministry. Prior to that, in December last year, Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Fariz Rzayev visited Israel to select the embassy building.

It is worth noting that Israel was one of the first countries that recognised Azerbaijan's independence on December 25, 1991, established diplomatic relations with it in 1992, and opened its embassy in Baku in 1993.

There is active cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel in a wide range of areas. In the summer of 2021, the Trade and Tourism Representative Office of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Israel was opened in Tel Aviv.

Israel is one of the main suppliers of arms to Azerbaijan, while Baku is a central supplier of oil to Israel. In addition, the countries cooperate on technology, agriculture, and renewable energy.

What is the significance of the upcoming event for each of the two states, and for the region as a whole? And what does it mean for Iran, which, as we know, continues to think of itself as a superpower in comparison to its neighbours?

Foreign experts answered these and other questions for Caliber.Az.

Mykhailo Honchar, president of Ukraine's Strategy XXI Globalist Centre and editor-in-chief of the "Black Sea Security" magazine, noted that the opening of Azerbaijan's embassy in Israel is primarily a landmark moment not so much for Israel, but for Baku.

"Although both countries have long established solid relations in the energy and military-technical fields, as well as in the sensitive area of intelligence activities, for a long time Baku refrained from appointing a plenipotentiary ambassador and opening the embassy. This was dictated both by the desire not to aggravate the already tense relations with Iran, and taking into account certain problems arising in Türkiye's relations with Israel, where Baku's balancing position was still closer to Ankara than to Tel Aviv," the expert believes.

Now the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus is undergoing dynamic changes, said Honchar.

"Iran has joined the informal global 'coalition of evil' - Russia, Belarus, China, North Korea. It has activated its nuclear weapons programme with Russia's help, and it is assisting Russia in its aggression against Ukraine. Tehran together with Moscow is thinking about a new-old division of spheres of influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which aims to limit the Western and Turkish presence in these regions," he said.

According to the head of the centre, amid the recent events (the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, military exercises near the border with Azerbaijan, and Iran's obstruction of the Zangazur corridor) Baku realised that it is time to strengthen the geopolitical position of the state diplomatically.

"Baku, in doing so, is acting on the principle of the Chinese stratagem 'friendship with the far side to war with the near side'. In fact, Iran is facing an informal alliance of three - Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Israel - on its northern border.

Obviously, the opening of Azerbaijan's embassy in Israel will expand already existing contacts between the two countries. I assume that both sides will step up cooperation to counter Iranian expansionism in the region, curbing its ability to create nuclear weapons and means of delivery, as well as to promote the anti-clerical opposition in Iran," Honchar added.

"This, of course, is an event of historical significance", said Avraham Shmulevich, a specialist on the Caucasus, the Islamic world, and the Middle East, Chairman of the Eastern Partnership Institute (Jerusalem). - Diplomatic relations between our countries were established at the dawn of the restoration of state independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan. And during all subsequent years, which is even rare in international practice, relations between Israel and Azerbaijan developed only positively. Not a single diplomatic crisis can be remembered between our countries, even a minor misunderstanding, etc.".

According to the specialist, this cooperation is of great importance for the national security of the two countries because Israel gets hydrocarbons from Azerbaijan. Indirect signs signal (it was not officially mentioned) that after the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine Israel replaced Russian oil deliveries with Azerbaijani oil.

"Well, Azerbaijan receives weapons and technology from Israel. In addition, there is very significant cooperation between both countries in agriculture, and communications, in almost all sectors of the economy. In other words, it is not random cooperation. It is really solid, friendly, mutually beneficial relations, which have been formed over decades," he said.

But at the same time, the Azerbaijani embassy in Israel was never opened, which of course greatly harmed Azerbaijani interests since the main task of the diplomatic mission is to convey to the government and the public of the host country the position of their state, Shmulevich stressed.

"In Israel, there were only a few NGOs consisting of Jews from Azerbaijan, and of course, they could not replace the work done by the diplomatic mission. Besides, the Armenian lobby is very strong in Israel. There is an Armenian community here and, most importantly, the Armenian Patriarchate, which is a powerful institution for the Armenian diaspora in the world. It has huge resources and influence on other Christian communities and Israeli political circles. In other words, Armenia's point of view has always been much louder in Israel than that in Azerbaijan. I hope that the opening of the embassy will largely help Azerbaijan to correct this situation.

And regarding Iran's position on this issue, it seems that Baku has decided that it is not only useless but also counterproductive to be afraid of it - that Azerbaijan should conduct its foreign policy without regard to whether someone likes it or not. This is the right policy", concluded the Israeli expert.